transport for nsw travel zone projections

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Nsw travel zones population projections 2022.

Transport for NSW provides projections of population and dwellings at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for NSW. The latest version is Travel Zone Projections 2022 (TZP22), released November 2022.

The projections are developed to support a strategic view of NSW and are aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions.

This new version TZP22 is an update on the previously published TZP19

The TZP22 Population & Dwellings Projections dataset covers the following variables:

• Estimated Resident Population
• Occupied Private Dwellings
• Population in Occupied Private Dwellings, by 5-year Age categories & by Sex
• Population in Non-Private Dwellings

The projections in this release, TZP22, are presented annually 2016 to 2026 and five-yearly from 2026 to 2066, and are in TZ16 geography.

Please note, TZP22 is based on best available data as at early to mid 2022. It includes the impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic and does not include results from the ABS 2021 Census as the relevant data had not been released at the time of TZP22 production.

Key Data Inputs used in TZP22:

• 2022 NSW Population projections data – NSW Department of Planning, Industry & Environment
• 2022 NSW Household and Dwelling projections data – NSW Department of Planning, Industry & Environment
• 2016 Census data - Australian Bureau of Statistics (including dwellings by occupancy, total dwellings by Mesh Block, historical household sizes, private dwellings by occupancy, population age and gender, persons by place of usual residence)
• The 2022 NSW Population, Household and Dwelling projections do not include 2021 Census data as the relevant data has not been released at the time of TZP22 production.

More detail as well as links to data can be found at the external data page.

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Population Projections

This dataset contains projected population figures from Transport for NSW’s Travel Zone Projection 2016 (TZP2016) model (formally known as LU16*). The data includes:

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Bus changes in the North and North West of Sydney

In August, changes will be made to bus services in the North and North West of Sydney to support the launch of Sydney Metro, Chatswood and Sydenham.

The bus changes aim to improve connectivity to Sydney Metro services and support integration into the broader public transport network.

The changes will enhance the network, support residential growth, reduce duplication of public transport services and include:.

• Increasing service frequency and operating hours of some bus routes to offer improved connections to Sydney Metro.
• Adjusting existing timetables for other bus routes to better reflect demand and improve service performance.
• Adjusting some bus routes to end in different locations, to reduce duplication of public transport services.
• Withdrawing a small number of routes where there is duplication with new Sydney Metro services and availability of alternative bus or train services.

Please see bus changes for more details on these upcoming changes.

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First group of Transport Oriented Development Accelerated Precincts will help build homes and communities

Published: 9 July 2024

Released by: Minister for Planning and Public Spaces

The next stage of the Minns Government’s plan to deliver more well-located homes for people, has been unveiled with the first three state-led rezoning proposals for Transport Oriented Development (TOD) Accelerated Precincts on public exhibition from today.

Set to deliver up to 30,000 new homes supported by almost 80,000 jobs, the Hornsby, Kellyville and Bella Vista, and Macquarie Park rezoning proposals will deliver homes close to jobs and transport, with access to great open space, shops and night life.

This is part of the Minns Government’s commitment to rebalance housing growth around transport infrastructure where there is existing infrastructure as part of its plans to confront the housing crisis and provide a future for the next generation of people instead of having them leave our city.

According to a report by the NSW Productivity and Equality Commissioner, between 2016 and 2021, Sydney lost twice as many people aged 30 to 40 as it gained, with a net loss of 35,000 young people from the city.

To encourage vibrant communities in the TOD Accelerated Precincts, Special Entertainment Precincts (SEP) will be enabled to support live entertainment through extended trading hours for live music venues and favourable noise controls that provide operational certainty for venues, neighbouring residents and businesses.

The TOD Accelerated Precincts will also share in $520 million which has been reserved for investment in community infrastructure such as critical road upgrades, active transport links and good quality open spaces.

The proposals for these first three TODs are:

Kellyville and Bella Vista – 20,700 new homes (between 620-1,650 affordable homes) and 10,000 jobs

The Kellyville and Bella Vista proposal will create a new community around two of the newest Metro stations in Sydney, supported by more than 10,000 jobs.

With the new Metro line extension to Waterloo slated to open on 4 August, people who move into this area will have a direct train link to the Chatswood, Crows Nest and Barangaroo Metro stations.

The new master planned area will include apartment buildings with direct access to a wide range of retail and commercial offerings, expansive open space areas and new active transport links with walking and cycling connections to the Metro stations.

A 3-8 per cent affordable housing target has been set with the homes to be affordable in perpetuity to encourage a diverse community.

Given their close proximity, the master planning and draft rezoning for Kellyville and Bella Vista was combined. This means that as development occurs, shared infrastructure can be identified to support new homes in these precincts.

Hornsby – 5,000 new homes (between 250-500 affordable homes) and 3,450 jobs

Hornsby CBD is set for a modern makeover with up to 5,000 new homes set to be added over the next 20 years to a new 38.9-hectare precinct spanning both sides of the train line.

The rezoning proposal, built upon Hornsby Shire Council’s Hornsby Town Centre Masterplan which has already had extensive previous community engagement, will create 3,450 jobs underpinned by more diversified housing with an affordable housing target between 5-10 per cent in perpetuity, meaning 250-500 homes set aside as affordable housing.

These new homes, just minutes from the Hornsby train station and close to excellent schools, come with all the advantages of living close to retail, restaurants, cafes and the National Park.

Macquarie Park Stage Two – 4,600 new homes (460-690 affordable homes) and 66,000 jobs

The Macquarie Park rezoning proposal will provide a mix of homes, jobs, entertainment, open space and commercial premises to transform the innovation and living hub for the 21st century.

The Macquarie Park TOD will bring the area to life with more apartments, seven hectares of open spaces, and street level vibrancy leading to an 18-hour economy, while sustaining more than 66,000 jobs.

Essential workers are catered for with 10-15 per cent affordable housing in perpetuity.

Major Changes to Assessment of TOD Sites

The Government is also exhibiting an Explanation of Intended Effect (EIE) which will include speeding up development assessments with changes to the State Significant Development threshold in the Precincts, exemptions from certain concurrence and referral requirements, and an alternative design excellence pathway.

This is in addition to consents in the TOD Accelerated Precincts being time-limited, requiring proponents to begin works within two years.

A public exhibition on the state-led rezonings proposals for these three TOD Precincts will occur from 9 July to 9 August 2024. Have your say for Kellyville Bella Vista, Hornsby and Macquarie Park.

Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully said:

“Today the first three Transport Oriented Development Accelerated Precinct rezoning proposals go on public exhibition with the remaining precincts to go on public exhibition soon.

“The Minns Labor Government’s planning reforms are focused on building better homes and better communities. These first three rezonings allow for up to 30,000 more homes supported by almost 80,000 jobs.

“People want to be able to buy or rent a home close to their friends and families and jobs supported by infrastructure, but the housing crisis across NSW, and especially Sydney, has made that almost impossible.

“We’re focused on getting the balance right, between building new homes and protecting the character of communities.  It doesn’t have to be an either-or choice. That’s why we are master planning these communities.

“NSW needs more social, affordable, key worker and market homes and these Transport Oriented Development Accelerated Precincts support the other planning reforms we have introduced that provide for the construction of diverse housing and the opportunity for people to find a well-located, well-built home that suits all stages of their lives.

“I encourage everyone to take a look at the proposals and provide their comments.”

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Toll roads charge too much yet we don’t have enough of them. To fix both things, NSW should buy their private owners

Professor of Transport, University of Sydney

Disclosure statement

David Levinson receives funding from Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with WalkSydney and Peaceful Bayside. His superannuation fund may own shares in TransUrban.

University of Sydney provides funding as a member of The Conversation AU.

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There’s nothing wrong with tolls on roads. Designed well, they can both pay for roads and ensure they are used efficiently.

Without tolls, drivers considering whether or not to travel on particular roads at particular times need only consider the delays they themselves experience – those caused by the cars in front of them.

They don’t need to consider the delays they impose on the users behind them. It’s one of the reasons we have too much congestion .

Properly designed tolls that vary with distance , location and time of day can make those costs apparent and get drivers to drive in ways that minimise congestion.

But as drivers in Australia’s three largest cities of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane know especially well, Australia’s tolls are exceedingly poorly designed.

Sydney might or might not be the “ most tolled city in the world ” but many of its tolls are very high and many of the surrounding roads aren’t tolled at all. This encourages drivers to under-use toll roads and over-use suburban streets, needlessly exposing people on those streets to noise, pollution and danger .

It is also unfair to those drivers who have no choice but to use toll roads. Other drivers who can use freeways that aren’t tolled don’t have to pay.

Private ownership stops properly designed tolls

Getting a system of tolls that is well designed ought to be easy, but the existing toll road operators have long-term contracts with state governments requiring compensation if what they can charge is changed.

Private ownership of public roads has long been regarded as less than ideal, including by the father of modern economics, Adam Smith, who in 1776 argued :

The tolls for the maintenance of a high road cannot with any safety be made the property of private persons.

If a state’s government operated toll roads in that state, it could charge for their use sensibly, but in NSW a single corporation, Transurban , operates most of them. Transurban is a public company listed on the stock exchange and also runs toll roads in Brisbane, Melbourne, and the United States.

Transurban charges tolls that will maximise the profits accruing to its shareholders, rather than tolls that will ensure its roads are well used.

Some of its contracts with the NSW government allow it to increase its tolls by the higher of inflation or 4% each year.

NSW should buy Transurban

Renegotiating the morass of existing contracts, each with its own set of interlocking ownership agreements and counterparties, contract-by-contract, would benefit only lawyers and not enable a comprehensive transformation.

In order to set tolls properly, the NSW government ought to buy Transurban, as well as its partners on individual roads.

With a market value of A$38 billion at the time of writing, buying Transurban might seem daunting.

But only about half of this value relates to Sydney. The rest is split between Victoria (27%), Queensland (16%) and the United States (7%). This means the net cost for NSW would most likely be less than $20 billion after selling off parts.

That cost could be financed by issuing bonds that would be paid off with future toll revenues. The organisations that currently hold Transurban shares might even buy the bonds. As with Transurban, they would be a safe bet.

It would be open to Victoria and Queensland to buy their parts of what’s left, take back control of their toll roads and issue bonds funded by future tolls to pay for the transaction.

Under public control, tolls could be set properly

Once it had obtained the right to set tolls, NSW could set them in a way that optimised traffic flow and reduced congestion in order to cut travel times.

It could be done without political interference by an organisation such as the NSW Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal , which currently determines maximum public transport fares.

Operations and management of the newly acquired motorways could be contracted out and regulated as appropriate, just as are bus operations, where contractors run the buses but the independent tribunal determines the fares.

Applied to all major roads instead of just some, the toll revenues could be lower on average, and could also be used to improve public transport .

Navigating the legal complexities and financial risks would be difficult, but the interim report of the NSW independent toll review released in March made a number of recommendations that would move tolling in this direction, including establishing a state TollCo that would negotiate tolls with the operators.

Taking over the operators is the next logical step.

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