pga tour stats strokes gained approach

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Last updated Jan 17, 2024

What is Strokes Gained Approach Shots? Explained

Strokes gained approach is an objective way to measure a golfer's ball-striking ability. In this post, I'll explain how it is calculated and why it matters.

Written By: Zach Gollwitzer

Posted in: Golf Statistics

Tags: Data-Driven Golf

What if I told you that the single biggest difference between you and a pro golfer is...

Your approach shots.

While it differs per golfer, many amateurs are surprised when I tell them that their long game is far more important than their short game when it comes to lowering their score.

In this post, I'm going to explain what "strokes gained approach" is all about and why it matters to your game.

This statistic tells us how good of a ball-striker a golfer is (e.g. irons ).

What is measured?

Strokes gained approach represents all shots over 30 yards (from edge of green) that are NOT tee shots on par 4s or par 5s. This metric includes par 3 tee shots.

Calculation and Formula

The formula for strokes gained approach (SGA) is:

SGA = Avg. strokes to hole out (start) - Avg. Strokes to hole out (end) - 1

Where "Avg. Strokes" is a "benchmark" calculated from hundreds of thousands of golf shots from the tour's ShotLink system.

Can Amateurs use this stat?

Yes, I recommend Arccos for tracking your strokes gained statistics.

Strokes Gained Approach: Tiger's Secret Weapon

We can all agree that Tiger is one of, if not the greatest golfers of all time.

But can we agree on why?

Some would argue that Tiger's dominance came from his putting. Others claim that it came from driving... Or chipping...

Thanks to the strokes gained methodology and the work done by Mark Broadie in Every Shot Counts , we now have a fairly objective answer to this question—and it may surprise you.

Tiger's dominance primarily came from his approach shots.

There, I said it.

As a former competitive golfer myself, I tend to think that his dominance came from his mental game, but we can't quantify that. We can quantify how much different parts of his game contributed to his victories by using strokes gained data.

Mark Broadie's research shows that over his career, Tiger gained ~1.28 strokes per round on his competitors.

That is... INSANE.

Tiger hits 75% of greens from 150-200 yards vs. the tour average of ~67%. Talk about an advantage.

But we're not here to talk about Tiger. We're here to talk about YOUR GAME.

Why should an amateur golfer care?

"But Zach, I'm not Tiger! I need to improve my driving and putting, not my iron shots!"

And you may be right.

But when it comes to golf improvement, the most important thing is to start tracking statistics and get an objective view of where your game needs work.

You can start by tracking your total greens in regulation , but that statistic doesn't tell you everything. If you're playing a course with massive greens, this statistic will be inflated even if you don't strike the ball well.

Strokes gained approach is all about proximity to the hole , which gives you an objective view of how well you struck the ball during a round, tournament, or entire career!

With strokes gained approach data, you can answer questions like:

• How well do I strike it from 100-150 yards?
• How well do I strike it from 150-200 yards?

By answering these questions, you'll know what to practice in your limited time at the range.

Furthermore, if we connect the dots between approach shots and strokes gained putting , we know that getting the ball a few feet closer to the hole can drastically improve your chances of making a putt.

What's wrong with the GIR (greens in regulation) statistic?

Greens in regulation , or "GIR" is a traditional golf statistic that measures how many greens a golfer hits "in regulation" during a round. If a golfer is playing a par 4 and hit the ball on the green in 2 strokes, that is a "green in regulation".

The PGA Tour average for this statistic is generally around 67% , while most amateurs hit less than 50% of greens.

This statistic is great for a simple measure of ball striking performance of a golfer, but has limitations:

• It doesn't account for the length of the course
• It doesn't account for the size of the greens
• It doesn't account for the weather conditions

That's why strokes gained approach is a much more objective and overall better method of assessing the overall ball striking of a golfer.

What is Strokes Gained Approach?

Formally, the strokes gained approach measures all shots over 30 yards (from the edge of the green) except tee shots on par 4 and par 5 holes. This includes par 3 tee shots.

Strokes gained approach is one of several strokes gained statistics tracked by the ShotLink system on Tour. You can find the official statistics on the PGA Tour website . Amateur golfers can track this through systems like Arccos as I'll explain later in this post.

In the screenshot above, you can see that during the 2023 season, Scottie Sheffler led the tour in strokes gained approach. On average, Scottie gained 1.194 strokes on the field per round, and during the 2023 season, gained 88.344 strokes on the field over all his rounds.

While the official stat measures strokes gained approach by round, we can measure it in many different ways. Given the right data, we could measure strokes gained approach:

• For a single golf hole
• For a round of golf
• For a full golf tournament
• For an entire golf career
• Between two golf courses
• Between two golf tournaments

In other words, we could say that Rory Mcilroy "gained 2.2 strokes on the field during the Players Championship".

We could also say, "Over his career, Rory Mcilroy has lost 0.2 strokes against his peers on approach shots"

Or even, "Pebble Beach's greens are 0.3 strokes harder to hit than Bethpage Black's greens" (because they are so small).

I know, I know, this is confusing! Let's take a look at some examples to better understand the elusive strokes gained approach metric.

How is Strokes Gained Approach Calculated?

Calculating strokes gained approach is simpler than you think! At its core, this metric revolves around comparing a player's approach shot performance to a benchmark, typically derived from data collected on professional tours like the PGA Tour. It's a great way to objectively assess ball striking ability of a golfer.

Strokes Gained Approach Formula

The basic formula for strokes gained approach is:

For example, let's say a player hits their ball in the fairway and has 140 yards left. From 140 yards in the fairway, a PGA pro will on average take ~2.91 strokes to hole out.

Next, let's say this player hits the green and has 10 feet left to the hole. Based on historical data, we expect a tour pro to take ~1.61 strokes from this distance to hole out.

So our formula is:

SGA = 2.91 - 1.61 - 1 = 0.3

In this example where a player hits a 140-yard approach shot from the fairway to 10 feet on the green, they have gained 0.3 strokes on the field.

We also must subtract 1 at the end to account for the stroke taken.

As you can see, SGA is a function of location (fairway, rough, sand, etc.) and proximity (how close the ball ended to hole).

Let's walk through the in-depth methodology here.

Basic Calculation Methodology

As with other strokes gained statistics , strokes gained approach is tracked using the following basic methodology:

• Establish a Baseline : The baseline is the average number of strokes a player takes to hole out from a given location and distance . For example, if a golfer is 135 yards from the rough , the baseline might be ~3.1 strokes. If an amateur is calculating strokes gained, they will typically compare to players of similar handicaps (skill levels) through an ecosystem like Arccos.
• Compare Individual Performance : Next, we compare a player's performance to this baseline. If a golfer hits a 150 yard shot to 3 feet, they will gain strokes against the field.
• Aggregate Data Over Rounds : This process is repeated for every shot in a round, and the values are aggregated. Positive values indicate better-than-average ball striking, while negative values suggest there's room for improvement.

Step 1: Establish a baseline

For our baseline, we'll look at a small sample of PGA Tour benchmarks. These numbers are not exactly what is used on tour (those numbers are constantly being updated), but are very close as they were sampled from Mark Broadie's book, Every Shot Counts :

Rows 1-4 are for putting, 5-6 are for "around the green", and the remainder are for approach shots.

Again, this is just a small sample to use for our examples. To calculate official statistics, more data points are used.

Step 2: Compare Individual Performance

For this example, let's say Tiger Woods is playing the 18th hole at Firestone South course during the WGC Bridgestone Invitational:

Let me start with an important note —we're ONLY looking at strokes gained approach here. Remember, strokes gained putting and strokes gained off the tee are separate metrics.

Strokes gained approach are shots over 100 yards that are not tee shots on par 4s and par 5s.

Therefore, the tee shot here and the putts will NOT go into our calculation.

On this hole, Tiger hit his drive in the fairway and had 160 yards left. He then hit it to 20 feet on the green. To calculate SGA, we have to figure out how many strokes are expected from the middle of the fairway at 160 yards (from the table above, that is 2.98 strokes). Then, we have to figure out how many strokes are expected from 20 feet on the putting green (from the table above, that is 1.87 strokes). We now subtract the two and take away 1 for the stroke taken.

SGA = 2.98 - 1.87 - 1 = 0.11

In this scenario, by hitting it to 20 feet from this distance, Tiger gained 0.11 strokes on the field.

Step 3: Aggregate

Now that you understand the individual calculation, we just need to go through this process for every hole during this round and sum them all up to get the official strokes gained approach metric that the PGA Tour tracks.

Finally, we can average it for all rounds of a season to get an annual metric. Below, you can see Tiger's strokes gained stats for 2007. He led the tour in strokes gained approach shots and on average, gained 1.65 strokes per round on the field!

"Median Leave": A better way to evaluate ball striking?

In his book, Every Shot Counts , Mark Broadie outlines an alternate way to measure approach shots called "median leave". While this is closely related to the strokes gained approach stat, it provides us with a slightly different angle. For example, take a sample from Broadie's analysis (2004-2012):

When we talk about median leave, we're referring to the percentage of total distance left after an approach shot.

Median Leave = Distance Remaining / Distance Starting

In other words, if a golfer hits a shot from 200 yards to 30 feet, that's a 5% "leave":

Median Leave = 30ft / 600ft = 5%

And yes, 600 feet is equivalent to 200 yards (we need similar units to calculate this).

By looking at median leave, we can better assess how well a golfer performs from different distances. For example, in the sample table above, you can see that during this time period, Scott Verplank was actually the best ball striker from 100-150 yards, but performed poorly from longer distances compared to other top players.

Can Amateur Golfers Use Strokes Gained Approach?

At the time of writing, the golf industry has come a long way with consumer-grade technology. With the proliferation of shot trackers and personal launch monitors , it has become easier for amateur golfers to assess their games with real on-course data.

That said, tracking strokes gained approach statistics still proves difficult for many golfers.

Because as we talked about earlier, strokes gained calculations require benchmark data.

This means that for a 15-handicap golfer to assess their game with strokes gained approach data, all of the following things must be tracked:

• Every approach shot must be tracked (location AND distance)
• Thousands of golfers who play to a 15 handicap must also track their approach shots
• All this data must be aggregated in one spot (ecosystem)

For the PGA Tour, this is easy. ShotLink tracks every golf shot from every tournament for every tour pro automatically.

For us amateurs, we don't have this luxury (and frankly, most of us probably don't want all of our shots tracked!)

There are a few options though and I'm excited to see how this evolves in the next decade!

Option #1: Automatic Tracking

In my opinion, automatic strokes gained tracking is the best option. Tracking every shot for every round you play is exhausting and most golfers do not have the discipline to keep this up over a long enough period for it to start helping their games.

At the time of writing, here are a few shot trackers that also have strokes gained statistics built-in to their ecosystems:

• Arccos Shot Trackers: The Arccos system has strokes gained calculations available to users (via the app) and thanks to all the amateur data they have collected, you can compare your rounds against golfers of similar skill levels. This is a huge benefit and allows for the most accurate strokes gained data.
• ShotScope Trackers: A close second to Arccos, ShotScope offers shot trackers and an app that calculates strokes gained data. From what I've seen, ShotScope does not have quite as many data points as Arccos, but is a great alternative.

Option #2: Manual tracking

Several apps allow you to track all of your shots manually and then review strokes gained data within the dashboard. While this can be cumbersome and exhausting to some golfers, it is a great option if you are highly disciplined and dedicated to improving your golf game.

Here are a few to check out:

• My Round Pro
• PinPoint Golf
• Decade Golf: This is more of a system than an app. While it does have an app, this is a premium service you pay for to help learn better golf strategy based on strokes gained data.

Other Types of Strokes Gained Statistics

At this point, you might be thinking—"Zach, we've talked a lot about approach shots, but what about the rest of my game?"

And you would be correct.

Strokes gained is more than just approach shots . It is an entire framework for measuring relative golf performance in all areas of a golfer's game:

• Strokes gained approach (this article)
• Strokes gained around the green
• Strokes gained putting
• Strokes gained off the tee (driving)

Concluding Thoughts: Big Takeaways

If we dive deeper into strokes gained approach data, there are a few conclusions that may surprise you:

• In almost all cases, getting as close to the hole as possible is beneficial to your score (yes, partial wedge shots still yield better results than full wedge shots for most players)
• Hitting from the fairway is nearly always better for your score (even though the rough seems easier to hit out of for some players)

Remember these things and be sure to check out my other strokes gained posts !

About the author: Loading...

About the author: zach gollwitzer.

Hey, I‘m Zach, the founder of The DIY Golfer! I created this site while playing D1 collegiate golf with a simple mission—I wanted to learn the golf swing and get better at golf myself.

Fast forward a few years, and my “journal“, The DIY Golfer, has been viewed by millions of golfers worldwide looking to do the same with their games. my mission is to make golfers more consistent in just a few hours a week through advanced practice strategies and timeless, first-principle golf instruction.

This Page is Mentioned in...

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Irons used by golfers ranked in the top 10 in strokes gained: approach the green, share this article.

With the PGA Tour moving back to a calendar-year schedule, every player’s official stats reset when the calendar flipped to 2024. So, now that the Masters Tournament is done and we have more than a handful of events to draw on, statistics become more meaningful and start to reveal who is playing well and who is struggling.

The stat coveted above all others is wins, and Scottie Scheffler is dominating that one with four, including a major. The next stat players really want to lead is money earned, and Scheffler leads that one, too, with a jaw-dropping $18,693,235.

Shifting to on-course stats that help golfers excel at winning tournaments and money, Strokes Gained: Approach the Green is critical. It compares how well a golfer is performing on shots hit from the fairway and off the tee on par 3s, and it does it measured in fractions of a stroke. A positive number means you are better than the tour average, while a negative number means you are giving away strokes. Golfers who are near the top of Strokes Gained: Approach the Green tend to have lots of birdie chances while avoiding big numbers on their scorecards.

Below is a list of the players who lead the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green heading into the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, along with the irons they typically have in their bag.

10. Lucas Glover, 0.676

Lucas Glover’s Srixon irons. (David Dusek/Golfweek)

IRONS: Srixon ZX5 MkII (4), ZX 7 MkII (5-PW), with True Temper Dynamic Gold Tour Issue X100 shafts

Shop Lucas Glover’s Srixon irons

9. Will Zalatoris, 0.694

The Titleist T150 irons (David Dusek/Golfweek)

IRONS: Titleist T350 (3), with Nippon NS Pro shaft, T150 (4-PW), with True Temper Dynamic Gold Tour Issue X100 shafts

Shop Will Zalatoris’ Titleist irons

8. Justin Thomas, 0.713

Justin Thomas’ Titleist 621.JT irons (Titleist)

IRONS: Titleist T200 (4), T100 (5), 621 JT prototype (5-9), with True Temper Dynamic Gold Tour Issue X100 shafts

Shop JT’s Titleist irons

7. Akshay Bhatia, 0.727

Akshay Bhatia’s Callaway iron. (David Dusek/Golfweek)

IRONS: Callaway X Forged UT (3), Apex TCB (5-PW), with KBS Tour $-Taper shafts

Shop Akshay Bhatia’s Callaway irons

6. Tony Finau, 0.773

Tony Finau Ping Blueprint S irons. (David Dusek/Golfweek)

IRONS: Nike Vapor Fly Pro (3), with Graphite Design Tour AD DI-105 X shaft, Ping Blueprint S (5-PW), with Nippon N.S. Pro Modus3 120 TX shafts

Shop Tony Finau's Ping irons

5. Corey Conners, 0.798

Ping Blueprint T irons (David Dusek/Golfweek)

IRONS: Ping Blueprint S (4-5), Blueprint T (6-PW) , with Project X 6.0 shafts

Shop Corey Conners' Ping irons

4. Ryan Moore, 0.802

Ryan Moore (Raj Mehta/Getty Images)

IRONS: New Level 623-MB (5-PW), with True Temper Dynamic Gold Lite X100 shafts

3. Shane Lowry, 0.87

Shane Lowry (Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports)

IRONS: Srixon ZX U Mk II (3), Srixon ZX5 MkII (4), with Nippon N.S. Pro Modus3 120 X shafts, Srixon ZX5 MkII (5), ZX 7 MkII (6-9), with KBS Tour shafts

Shop Shane Lowry's Srixon irons

2. Tom Hoge, 1.035

Titleist T100 irons. (David Dusek/Golfweek)

IRONS: Srixon ZX U Mk II (2), with Fujikura Ventus Blue HB 10 X shaft, Titleist T100 (4), Titleist 620 MB (5-9), with Project X 6.5 shafts

Shop Tom Hoge's Titleist irons

1. Scottie Scheffler, 1.398

Scottie Scheffler’s TayorMade irons. (David Dusek/Golfweek)

IRONS:  Srixon ZU85 (3), with Nippon Pro Modus3 Hybrid Tour X shaft, (4), with True Temper Dynamic Gold Tour Issue X100 shaft,  TaylorMade P-7TW  (5-PW), with True Temper Dynamic Gold Tour Issue X100 shafts.

Shop TaylorMade irons

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Strokes gained and the stats behind the scorecards on the PGA Tour

Published: 10 January 2024 Last updated: 10 January 2024

As the newly revamped 2024 season tees off, Today’s Golfer reflects on what it takes to succeed on tour and the metrics that matter most.

Merger mayhem, mega money moves , ‘Capgate’ controversy, and the battle to bifurcate – 2023’s off-course antics proved more turbulent than ever before.

“Golf is a mess” , puts Andrew ‘Beef’ Johnston, as the PGA Tour’s reimagined calendar-year schedule teed off for its ‘Opening Drive’ in Hawaii. A much-needed pause from the drama dividing a game glittering with talent, global superstars, and record-breaking performances.

Take Scottie Scheffler. The World No.1’s spectacular season of ball striking saw him top the ‘Strokes Gained’ (SG) leaderboards for SG: Off-the-tee and SG: Approach in 2023 – the first time the feat has been achieved in the SG era.

Despite a deflating start to his TGL virtual venture , Rory McIlroy became the first player since 1981 to finish a season with a streak of 10 consecutive top-10 results. Team Europe’s premier gladiator in Rome also set a new all-time driving distance record on tour of 326.3 yards.

And, what to make of Ryder Cup bolter Ludvig Aberg’s remarkable breakthrough season. It took the Texas Tech graduate a mere 75 days to register his first professional win, before slotting in seamlessly alongside Europe’s big guns at Marco Simone.

By mid-November, Aberg had also added a first PGA Tour title at the RSM Classic, rewriting the PGA Tour record book along the way with his 72-hole total of 253 – equaling Justin Thomas’ mark, with closing back-to-back 61s adding up to the lowest final 36-hole total ever. Somehow that wasn’t enough to pip Eric Cole to the PGA Tour’s Rookie of the Year award.

Scandi compatriot Viktor Hovland also had a 2023 to remember, finishing as FedExCup Champion after storming to back-to-back victories at the business end of the season.

Not only were the numbers following the dollar sign on Hovland’s cheques rather impressive, but so too were the stats behind his performances.

The Norwegian World No.4 became the first player in 30 years to lead the field in Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation and Scrambling on route to the Tour Championship, and the first in 40 to win back-to-back while topping both fields in Driving Accuracy.

A resurgent Rickie Fowler returned to the winner’s circle at the Rocket Mortgage Classic on the back of reinventing his approach play. The Californian finished 2023 tied sixth for SG: Approach, after struggling to break 150 th in the two preceding seasons.

A special mention must also go to Lucas Glover who delivered his first multi-win season at 43 years old. His two wins came back-to-back, stealing the perhaps unwanted title of the oldest back-to-back winner on tour from Vijay Singh.

Of course, the above achievements provide a mere snapshot of a season where the talent on the turf still managed to outshine the chaos off it.

And whether you prefer Coke or Pepsi, DC or Marvel, PGA or LIV, a 58 is a 58, and Bryson DeChambeau’s historic efforts at Greenbrier stand with the best performance across golf’s 2023 tours.

Performances of this caliber not only take an extraordinary work rate, talent, and belief, but an uncompromising attention to detail, and hunger to dive down into the metrics that matter most and differentiate the best from the rest at this elite level.

DeChambeau is not alone in his data-driven approach to understanding performance. Matt Fitzpatrick is another determined to find silver bullets in the data he religiously records from every shot, and Edoardo Molinari’s stock is fast rising as a leading performance analyst to Team Europe and others looking for an empirical edge.

Numbers can have their pitfalls, however.

Granted, they don’t have opinions – which is refreshingly helpful in golf at present – but they can lead us all off the fairway and down a rabbit hole.

Which ones are meaningful, and which ones are simply ‘nice to know’?

Golf is a multi-faceted skill-based game like no other. There is no hierarchical model that determines performance outcomes. Good shots can be punished, bad shots can be rewarded, and we can all lay testament to that.

The right player, on the right day, on the right course has a puncher’s chance of winning on tour. The 69 different winners across 92 PGA and DP World Tour tournaments illustrate this point as well as any.

Climbing to the top tiers of the Official Golf World Rankings requires something more, however.

The highest rungs on the ladder can only be reached via a consistency of performance over time, earned by featuring frequently on the first page of Sunday afternoon leaderboards.

What can we learn from the performance characteristics of these players? What are the non-negotiables and how well-rounded do the best really need to be?

The validity of ‘Strokes Gained’ as a performance measure

Columbia University professor Mark Broadie’s ‘Strokes Gained’ measurement tool has undoubtedly revolutionized our understanding of the critical determinants of golf performance at the highest level.

An ever-growing bank of ShotLink data continually refines our knowledge of the exact number of strokes required for the ‘average PGA Tour golfer’ to put the ball in the hole from any given location on the course.

SG essentially provides a meaningful performance benchmark, enabling interested parties to measure how much better or worse a tour pro performs in specific areas of the game compared to their counterparts.

And in the same way that we accept the end-of-year world rankings to fairly reflect ‘what’ happened in the preceding 12 months of competition, the vast data underpinning end-of-season SG leaderboards is now widely accepted as a logical explanation of ‘how’ it happened too.

The cumulation of SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Putting is known as SG: Total – a leaderboard topped by Scottie Scheffler in 2023, despite being the only player in the top 10 to finish below the tour average for putting. More on Scottie’s flat stick issues later.

Diving into the data

A linear regression of SG: Total against a medium-term success metric (end-of-year world ranking), shows a reasonable measure of fit against the model (R 2 = 0.51).

Simply put, SG: Total is roughly 50% successful at predicting world-ranking positions at the end of a season.

The relationship appears strongest for those players at the top of the SG: Total leaderboard, an observation also noted in a previous analysis that reported how SG: Total is an increasingly useful indicator of end-of-year ranking for the top 30 players.

But what for the relative importance of SG: Total’s constituent parts? Does the age-old anecdote of “drive for show, putt for dough” have any credibility?

Quite the opposite in fact.

We took the top 90 players from each SG leaderboard on the PGA Tour and divided them into three groups to see how proficiency in each facet of the game affected WR.

Not all SG statistics are born equal!

For this to be true we might expect more balanced average rankings for each SG metric and more proportional differentials between each level of player.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the SG: Total leaders had the lowest WR for the most elite group (24.73), followed by SG: Tee-to-Green (30.57), and then SG: Approach (35.40).

SG: Around-the-Green (46.47), SG: Putting (52.83), and SG: Off-the-Tee (56.50) round off the order – which would be sequential in terms of importance be it not for performance Off-the-tee on par 4s and 5s.

These data therefore highlight the importance of a strong all-round tee-to-green game if you want to reach the higher echelons of the WRs, and more specifically a dialed-in ‘approach game’ is critical.

A glance at the illustrious list of PGA Tour winners on the SG: Approach leaderboard and you’ll understand why.

The next pool of players (ranked 31-60) for SG: Approach don’t necessarily end the year further up the WRs than the final group (ranked 61-90). The same can be said of the SG: Around-the-Green leaderboard.

Birdie or better conversion rate may go some way to explaining this. It’s one thing hitting the green, it’s another taking your chances – and you’re not mixing it with the McIlroys and Hovlands of this world without being able to do this somewhat consistently.

With average driving distance on tour in the region of 300 yards, players are typically left with 125-150 yards on average length par 4s on tour.

A key distance to get nailed down, and interestingly the Green-in-Regulation leaderboards read very differently when the approach length edges beyond 150 yards.

Food for thought considering the recent decision to roll the golf ball back 15 yards from 2028.

How important is a well-rounded skillset?

Back to Scottie Scheffler, and if you’re going to have a weakness…

The World No.1 ranked first on four out of the six SG leaderboards, fifth for SG: Around-the-Green, and an eyebrow-raising 162 nd for SG: Putting, losing an average of 0.3 shots on the field.

McNealy, Montgomery, and McCarthy stepped up on 2023’s putting podium. Not exactly golf’s household names with all due respect.

And while we do see the likes of Schauffele, Homa, Hatton, and Burns challenging atop the SG: Putting leaderboard, our results tend to support the notion that the putter doesn’t need to be red hot every week.

It seems more important to give yourself chances all year round and keep faith that a putting purple patch will arrive, and hopefully in time for Major week.

We shouldn’t dismiss the short game as a ‘nice string to the bow’, however. The world’s best take fewer putts per round, convert more birdies, scramble better from both the sand and rough, and gain more shots in general both around and on the green.

The differentials between performance levels are just smaller than tee-to-green.

A final result of note is that driving the ball further does not differentiate between these groupings of elite players.

It appears to be important enough to put a shorter shaft in your hand for the next shot, but no match for being able to pepper the pin. A 300-yard drive quickly loses its value if you struggle to hit areas of the dancefloor where more putts are holed than missed.

This is what the best are doing consistently better than the rest.

But what does it actually take to win you ask?

Reassuringly, more of the same.

The SG data from the 41 PGA Tour events with individual champions in 2023 again stress the importance of a skillset with a laser-like approach play at the heart.

Champions on tour placed 39th on average for SG: Total, with the relative importance of each game facet decreasing in importance as the ball made its way to the hole.

The most striking difference between the two measures of success (WR and winning on tour), lies in the superior performance off the tee across the season for those going on to lift trophies.

It appears a less crucial weapon for climbing the WRs but is seemingly a key piece of artillery for those who won in 2023. Winners Scheffler, Aberg, McIlroy, and Hovland all feature in the top 8 for SG: Off-the-Tee, helping the metric rise in stature.

Interestingly, despite Scheffler dominating the majority of the SG leaderboards, it’s McIlroy who has the lowest average ranking across all six SG categories, adding weight to the Northern Irishman’s stake as the most complete player on tour.

Rahm, Homa, and Hovland also feature in the conversation for the best all-rounder based on this data.

Let’s wrap up by contradicting the last 2,000 words.

Statistics are great talking points, and very often can be reliable predictors of future success. But the beauty of sport, and indeed professional golf resides in its unpredictability and unwillingness to read the script.

Take a bow Nico Echavarria, stepping up from 406 th in the WRs to win the Puerto Rico Open on 21-under par, rising over 100 places in the space of a week to 287 th .

What was his super-strength? Timing. Pure and simple. The Columbian didn’t break inside the top 125 in any SG category that year.

It may not have been the most stellar field in the world, but Echavarria can call himself a PGA Tour winner, and no doubt the only numbers that mattered to him were $684,000.

It just goes to show the strength in depth across the tour, every dog has his day, but consistency is king if you want to be a top dog on tour.

Analysis – what we did

Our sample explored relationships between the top 90 ranked players from PGA Tour ShotLink leaderboards and success outcomes in golf – world ranking and tour wins.

The only exception being if a featured player finished the year ranked outside the world’s top 200. We deemed this as being a reasonable cut-off for describing players who regularly compete in top-tier tour events.

Limitations worth noting are the significant absence of data from LIV Tour players, and the fact that not every round of golf is captured by ShotLink, which may elevate or suppress a true reflection of performance across the season in some cases.

That said, the results are in good agreement with past studies and provide an objective starting point for conversations into the performance determinants of elite golfing performance.

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About the author

Ross Tugwood

Golf Equipment Writer

Ross Tugwood is a golf equipment writer for todays-golfer.com, specializing in data, analytics, science, and innovation.

Ross is passionate about optimizing sports performance and has a decade of experience working with professional athletes and coaches for British Athletics, the UK Sports Institute, and Team GB.

He has post-graduate degrees in Performance Analysis and Sports Journalism, enabling him to critically analyze and review the latest golf equipment and technology to help you make better-informed buying decisions.

The Memorial presented by Workday

Muirfield Village Golf Club

The golf stats that matter most on the PGA Tour

Consider, for a moment, Denny McCarthy. In the 2019-20 season, he was the strokes gained/putting champion of the PGA Tour , and almost became just the second person (after Jason Day) to average an entire stroke gained over the field per round. It was his second straight mythical putting title, and it’s not even a little hyperbolic to call him one of the greatest putters on Earth. That said, if you know anything about Denny McCarthy, you know he’s not one of the greatest players on Earth. In the two seasons when he led the PGA Tour in putting, he finished 111th and 73rd in the FedEx Cup standings and only managed six top-10s in 51 tournaments. There’s no doubt that he’s very good, but there’s also no doubt that in this case, his brilliant putting didn’t translate to superlative results.

Golf, like many sports, is fertile ground for folk wisdom. If you’ve spent time around a course, you’ve heard the expression “drive for show, putt for dough.” McCarthy’s case would cast some doubt on this formulation, but of course the 27-year-old is just one person and it would be a mistake to draw any statistical conclusions from the smallest possible sample size. Right or wrong, though, the “putt for dough” idea is attempting to answer a question of critical importance for players: Which skill matters the most? Which specific aspect of golf has the greatest correlation to sustained success? And which elements are less important than we think?

To search for the answer, I reached out to Rick Gehman, founder of RickRunGood.com and a Golf Digest contributor. There are a few brilliant numbers guys in golf, and he’s one of them. As expected, he took the concept and blew it out of the water. In his words:

I’ve attached a sheet that looks at the 130 official PGA Tour stats and compares them for the 2020 season FedEx Cup Regular Season Points. With only one year, and a shortened one at that, there’s going to be more randomness than usual BUT I think the list certainly passes the eye test.

Gehman’s method was what he called a “straightforward regression model,” in which two variables are compared to each other using 129 qualifying players. The steady variable is FedEx Cup points accrued by a player during the regular season, which was our metric for success (you could argue that total strokes-gained average is better, but I wanted to go by the PGA Tour’s own standard, albeit before the points blow up in the playoffs and skew the results). The second variable is the other 130 stats, with a ranking value assigned to each based on a player’s finish in the year-end standings. By finding out which ones have the closest correlation to each other, you can see which statistics might predict success.

In simpler words, this shows us what the best players did the best.

RELATED: The top 100 PGA Tour pros in 2021, ranked

Let me echo Gehman’s caution up top: With only an abbreviated season’s worth of data, there is bound to be some statistical noise, and to draw definite conclusions of any kind, you’d need to look at a years-long study.

With that said, the list can be found here . The higher the number, the more closely correlated the result is with FedEx Cup success. A few observations:

• As a quality control test, it’s good to see that “official money” and “Official World Golf Ranking” are the top two. Clearly, if these didn’t correlate with our concept of success, something would be seriously wrong.

• Of the comprehensive strokes-gained numbers, SG/approach the green is the most “important” to overall success. It’s the top stat after money and World Ranking, and it’s even above SG/total, which comes in fourth. That last fact is the least intuitive of the results and probably deserves closer inspection.

RELATED: What the sophisticated golf fan should be looking for in 2021

• The top six are: SG/approach the green, SG/off-the-tee, scoring average, SG/total, SG/around the green, and SG/tee-to-green. Again, this all stands to reason and functions as good quality control.

The saying "putt for dough" on the PGA Tour hasn't held up the last two seasons, as Denny McCarthy led both times in strokes gained/putting but finishing 111th and 76th on the FedEx Cup points list, respectively.

Gregory Shamus

• But you might have noticed something missing … where’s putting? Incredibly, SG/putting ranks 64th on the list, exactly at the halfway mark. It’s hard not to think of that number in relation to McCarthy, and while the warning above still has to be observed, it definitely raises some questions about the relative value of putting.

• Looking at the top of the list, there are a lot of stats like “birdie average” and “scoring average” that you’d expect. But when you start getting into highly specific stats, like driving distance and “approaches from > 200 yards” you see the putting categories appear only after several tee-to-green stats.

RELATED: 10 players who will make you money betting on them in 2021

• In particular, long approaches seem to be of some importance. Approaches from longer than 175 yards seem more correlated with success than anything on the green. Greens in regulation is hugely critical, coming in 16th.

• Scrambling matters, too. Not only is SG/around the green fifth overall, but scrambling itself (31st), sand-save percentage (35th), scrambling from the rough (44th) and scrambling from 10-20 yards (49th) are all relatively high.

• Interestingly, “consecutive cuts” finished dead last, one of only two stats with a negative correlation value. Clearly, in a system like the FedEx Cup where points are top heavy, consistency without at least sporadic excellence is a dubious merit.

• In the “Bryson was right” department, driving distance average (28th) is more closely correlated with success than driving-accuracy percentage (52nd).

• If you’re looking for a magic secret stat that perfectly predicts success, you’ll be disappointed. Personally, I was hoping that we’d somehow find out that all the best players were wizards from the left rough between 150-175 yards. Alas …

RELATED: 7 sleepers you need to watch in 2021

After reading Gehman’s list, I wanted to try one more approach that looked only at the top 30 players on tour from last season. It’s less scientific, but I thought it might be worthwhile. Luis Rivera at the PGA Tour helped immensely by providing me with a spreadsheet of the overall ranking in all the major strokes-gained categories from the top 30 in the 2020 FEC rankings. With these numbers, it was possible to do a quick and dirty check for success correlation.

A clutch putt from Mackenzie Hughes, something his stats show he's prone to do, at the BMW Championship earned him the last spot into the 2020 Tour Championship.

Stacy Revere

With fewer players, there will be outliers, and the data will necessarily be less precise. As an example, we can look at Mackenzie Hughes, who missed nine of his first 11 cuts, then made it all the way to the Tour Championship by virtue of catching fire late. He’s in the McCarthy vein, having finished eighth in putting but worse than 140th in the other major categories. Meanwhile, Hideki Matsuyama goes the other way, cleaning up from off the green but finishing a sad 170th in putting.

Here were the average season-ending rankings for each category among this group of 30:

SG/total : 29.7 SG:/tee-to-green : 41.47 SG/approach : 52.97 SG/off-the-tee : 53.67 SG/putting : 65.73 SG/around the green : 71.9

The similarity here is that putting is relatively low, and the biggest difference comes with “around the green,” which looks a lot less significant here. (Also, fans of strokes gained will be relieved to know that SG/total is No. 1 here, as you’d expect it to be.) Again, Gehman’s method is the more sophisticated metric, and should take precedence, but it’s interesting to see what changes and what doesn’t with a slightly different method.

The broad conclusion is that when you look at 2020, tee-to-green golf seems to be a more useful skill than putting. In the real world, a great player needs both, but we may want to get ahead of the curve and tweak that famous expression: Putt for show, do everything else for dough.

Opinion & Analysis

The tour’s new strokes gained stats: what do they mean and how can you use them.

What is Strokes Gained anyway?

Don’t feel stupid if you have to ask this question. I deal with many people who make their living in the golf business and do not really understand this concept – and forget about the TV commentators. Simply stated, Strokes Gained is the best thing to happen to golf analysis since the game was invented. It renders the one-dimensional, traditional golf statistics virtually obsolete as it provides an accurate assessment of every player’s relative skill in each of the four categories of the game.

Strokes Gained evaluates each shot by comparing it to a standard derived from a computer model of performance. The starting position of the shot and its distance from the hole have a value as do the end position and distance. The values are based upon statistical analysis of all of the PGA Tour rounds since the advent of Shotlink data in 2004. The values for every possible distance and position represent the average # of strokes to hole out from each position.

Here’s how the Strokes Gained (or Lost) are calculated:

• Start value – (End value + # strokes need to get there)

Here’s a quick example:

• Start: 8-foot putt opportunity. End: Holed (1-putt)
• Start value: 1.50 – (End value: 0.0 – 1.0 to get there) = .5 Strokes Gained
• The player gained/saved half a shot. A 2-Putt would have lost half a shot

A bit more background

The PGA Tour launched Strokes Gained Putting in 2011. A second feature, Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, was added in 2014. This was applauded by most as the long game “analysis,” when in fact it was simply everything else but putting, no analysis at all. If a player enjoyed Strokes Gained Putting of +1.00 but scored at exactly the level of the field, his Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green would be -1.00, simple subtraction.

The new stats and what they mean

In late May 2016, the Tour added three new Strokes Gained (SG) analysis pieces:

• SG Off-the-Tee : Considers all drives on par-4 and par-5 holes. Say goodbye to the most useless stat in golf:  Fairways Hit . This new off-the-tee stat includes not only fairways hit or missed and the relative distances accomplished, but more importantly, the relative severity of the misses, or what I refer to as driving errors. Including these misses is critical. I have analyzed more than a few events in which the top-5 finishers hit fewer fairways than the field, but their overall driving was heads and shoulders better. Clearly, a new performance yardstick was sorely needed.
• SG Approach-the-Green : Considers any approach shot that starts more than 30 yards from the edge of the green. This number also reflects distance and accuracy of the good shots as well as the misses.
• SG Around-the-Green : Considers all shots starting from within 30 yards of the edge of the green, the Tour’s measure of the short game. It includes all positions: fairway, rough, and sand. This stat is driven by proximity to the hole of the shots (how close they are hit), but also includes the not-so-rare mistakes, or shots that miss the green. Unfortunately, these often costly missed short game shots have never counted or been visible in any of the 653 stats that the Tour publishes. At least now they are being counted.

Add the SG Putting stat to these three and we now have the entire Strokes Gained puzzle. It provides much more clarity into each player’s true strengths and weaknesses, and they all have them!

How can you apply Strokes Gained to your game?

Unfortunately, without a detailed performance model, one cannot implement the system. However, with the growing popularity of Strokes Gained, a number of applications have been introduced. If you Google “Strokes Gained Websites” you will see quite a few options. I, of course, recommend mine,  ShotByShot.com , as I have been doing it longer than anyone and have a better understanding of the process and 250.000+ rounds of comparative “Target data.” This unique database helps players at every level clearly identify the nature of their strengths and weaknesses.

If you are looking for insight into your game where you do not have to buy anything, please see my recent GolfWRX article: How to track some of the most important stats in golf.

The strengths and weaknesses of Bryson DeChambeau’s game

The most ridiculous element of the Dustin Johnson ruling isn’t the ruling

In 1989, Peter Sanders founded Golf Research Associates, LP, creating what is now referred to as Strokes Gained Analysis. His goal was to design and market a new standard of statistically based performance analysis programs using proprietary computer models. A departure from “traditional stats,” the program provided analysis with answers, supported by comparative data. In 2006, the company’s website, ShotByShot.com, was launched. It provides interactive, Strokes Gained analysis for individual golfers and more than 150 instructors and coaches that use the program to build and monitor their player groups. Peter has written, or contributed to, more than 60 articles in major golf publications including Golf Digest, Golf Magazine and Golf for Women. From 2007 through 2013, Peter was an exclusive contributor and Professional Advisor to Golf Digest and GolfDigest.com. Peter also works with PGA Tour players and their coaches to interpret the often confusing ShotLink data. Zach Johnson has been a client for nearly five years. More recently, Peter has teamed up with Smylie Kaufman’s swing coach, Tony Ruggiero, to help guide Smylie’s fast-rising career.

19 Comments

Scott Carlson

Jun 30, 2016 at 8:59 pm

This is great stuff, Peter. This is very similar to metrics used by financial professionals/analysts to compare the performance of securities to others within the same industry. Peer analysis allows the investor to gain an understanding into the unique competitive advantages a company has against its competitors. Now, this may be one individual financial or operational category that far exceeds peer performance (e.g. return on equity) or a comprehensive set of metrics that provide consistent outperformance (e.g. market share growth to earnings growth to debt/equity ratio). Also, in a similar fashioin, MLB scouts have used sabermetrics with great success to determine WAR (wins above replacement) to get more useful and objective performance measures of prospects and current players.

To the other commenters that seem to have a very basic understanding of mathematics…you don’t buy a company’s stock because you like a their products or they have lots of revenue, rather, you buy their stock because they show a consistent and unique competitive advantage over time relative to their peers. This is the same situation…relative performance analysis!

I work in junior golf (AJGA) and getting this information to college golf coaches would be HUGE in helping them with their perpetually tightening recruiting budgets…all the way from large D1 programs down to NAIA schools. I understand the tracking will be a significant barrier, but ShotByShot may help (post-round). Offering this analysis to our 6,500+ members would be an enormous benefit in helping them improve their games and/or earn that prized scholarship.

Another thing that would be cool is to perform a regression analysis to the existing Tour data to determine correlation patterns/trends to the basic stats (like SG Off the Tee to Total Driving and Fairway Hit %) and then apply those patterns/trends to historical data over time to see how a player fares to some of golf’s greatest legends. Surely the basic data exists back to the early to mid 20th century!

Awesome work!!!

Jul 5, 2016 at 3:29 pm

Scott, Thanks for your very supportive comment. As to our SG analysis being of help to AJGA and/or college golf programs, most of our 150+ coaches that use our program with their players have active junior programs. Juniors have become such a large part of our business that we added 9-hole data entry and analysis early this year. In addition, we work with several college teams but could always like to see the word get out to more. If you have any ideas on how we might collaborate, please contact me at [email protected] .

Patricknorm

Jun 22, 2016 at 3:02 pm

I like when logic gives you data. In this case the numbers don’t lie. For a pro though it’s abundantly clear that your ability to outdrive everyone, hit a shorter iron into the green ( which should be more accurate) and then have shorter putts, you should shoot lower scores. Tiger Woods, at his peak was a superb driver of the ball, a better iron player, which meant he holed more putts. The same went for Jack Nicklaus. Last weekend Dustin Johnson was fantastic off the tee, excellent on his irons, and a good enough putter to stay in contention and eventually win. In today’s game a consistent 330 drive is necessary to get the ball rolling ( metaphorically) in golf. If your relatively accurate it compensates the player by letting him a shorter iron out of the rough towards the green. Good article. Instinctively I know when my approach shots can’t be chipped in off the green I’m really scrambling for par. And conversely if I’m 50 feet from the pin on the green, it’s no guarantee I’ll make par. Nice to be able to quantify this data.

Jun 23, 2016 at 10:37 am

Thanks Patricknorm!

Captain Wedge

Jun 22, 2016 at 2:35 pm

In general yeah, you know what parts of your game are weak. But do you know “how many strokes” that part of your game is costing you? Doubt it…

Jun 22, 2016 at 1:33 pm

All comments here, other than the unsupported “useless endeavor” opinion, point to ‘strokes gained’ as a very useful endeavor. I’m down!

Jun 22, 2016 at 3:06 pm

Your comments show how little you know. It’s measured against other non-professionals based on how many rounds they have statistical data for.

Jun 23, 2016 at 10:42 am

ShotByShot.com measures your Strokes Gained against the averages from the thousands of rounds posted by those in your “Target” Handicap group. Briefly, if a player is a 20 handicap, it does not good to be compared to a 5 handicap or the PGA Tour. We have target ranges from +6 to +4 all the way up to 25 to 29 handicaps.

Jun 21, 2016 at 10:28 pm

All said and done, the approach shot or should I say, the quality of the approach shot (distance from the pin) is the most important shot in the game. Most of the rest of the stats are relatively meaningless for us amateurs

Jun 22, 2016 at 2:32 pm

I don’t think they are meaningless. I used to track all my one-dimensional stats (Fairways, GIRs, and Putts). Now those are meaningless bc at the end of the day they told me nothing about my final score as there were no trends to them. Strokes Gained actually pinpoints where your game was strong vs. where it cost you strokes. I’d like to see these stats on my own game. My only issue is having to track and document EVERY shot. Not really something I want to do when I want to relax and play a round of golf. Maybe I’ll try it on a few rounds here and there.

Jun 23, 2016 at 10:50 am

Captain Wedge, thanks for your support. I have purposely streamlined the data requirements of ShotByShot.com because I too did not want a lot of work when I was enjoying a round or competing. Try it, you will see it is extremely easy once you understand the system and the apps make it even easier.

Jun 23, 2016 at 10:47 am

Not so mikee! I have found that from Tour players up to 20+ handicaps, we are all snowflakes and find our unique way to shoot our number. While there may be trends and certain parts of the game occupy a larger piece of the pie, everyone has distinct Strengths and Weaknesses. The challenge is to discover what and why they are so that they can be properly addressed.

Jun 21, 2016 at 1:24 pm

Easy to understand. But ultimately a useless endeavor. Hey, I putted badly today I better practice, serves the same purpose.

Jun 21, 2016 at 2:06 pm

But how do you know when you putted badly? # of putts? Strokes Gained is accurate. If relying on # of putts, one should also balance their checkbook based upon the # of checks written without regard to the $ amounts.

Jun 21, 2016 at 4:35 pm

To build on your point, ‘I putted badly’ is a complete subjective. I might say I’ve putted badly, but if in fact I putted to my average, then practicing my putting is pointless, because it was probably my irons that let me down

Jun 21, 2016 at 8:01 pm

To argue against your point – If you think you “putted badly” but actually putted to your average, your average probably isn’t very good… In that case, putting practice is still very necessary…

Jun 21, 2016 at 9:34 pm

You may think you putted ‘badly’ based on number of putts, but actually putted from a greater distance due to decreased accuracy of iron shots. A larger improvement may be gained from practicing iron accuracy, thus leaving shorter putts.

Jun 22, 2016 at 4:37 pm

Yeah. I vaguely remember some story about Tiger early in his career complaining to Butch about his putting woes at the time. Tiger started toward to the practice green but Butch stopped him and handed him an iron. “Putting’s not your problem, your approach shots are.” (Or something to that effect)

Jun 23, 2016 at 10:58 am

My golf professional used my original program years ago while trying to qualify for the senior tour. He completed my scorecards for all rounds and mailed them to me. When he came home we met to go thru his analysis. I started by asking for his assessment of his Strengths and weaknesses. He said: “I hit the ball as well as anyone out there and my short game is strong but I am a terrible putter.” I then shared my Strokes Lost/Saved (Strokes Gained) analysis that showed that he was actually a very good putter but while he was a long driver, he made too many driving errors, missed too many GIR’s and put too much pressure on his short game and putting. The game is a roller coaster. Without a way of routinely recording performance, it is very difficult to know where one may need the most work.

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Vincenzi’s 2024 rbc canadian open betting preview: breakthrough pga tour winner likely in canada.

The PGA Tour is heading north of the border to play the 2024 RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf and Country Club. 

This will be the seventh time that Hamilton Golf and Country Club will be hosting the Canadian Open. The previous six winners were Rory McIlroy (2019), Scott Piercy (2012), Jim Furyk (2006), Bob Tway (2003), Tommy Armour (1930) and James Douglas Edgar (1919). 

Hamilton Golf and Country Club is a par-70 measuring 7,084 yards and features greens that are a Bentgrass and Poa Annua blend. The course has been open since 1915 and is one of the oldest golf clubs in Canada. 

Since we’ve seen it last, the course underwent a $8.5-million restoration guided by Martin Ebert.

The RBC Canadian Open will play host to 156 golfers this week.  Notable players include Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Cameron Young, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala and Alex Noren.

Past Winners at RBC Canadian Open

• 2023: Nick Taylor (-17, Oakdale)
• 2022: Rory McIlroy (-19, St. George’s)
• 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22, Hamilton)
• 2018: Dustin Johnson (-23, Glen Abbey)
• 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21, Glen Abbey)
• 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12, Glen Abbey)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats for Hamilton Golf and Country Club

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Hamilton Golf and Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

The best metric to start with is Strokes Gained: Approach. Proficient iron play is a requirement anywhere, and this statistic will help target the hottest golfers. With the winning score likely being very low, players will need to be dialed with their approach shots. 

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

• Corey Conners (+1.14)
• Kelly Kraft  (+1.06)
• Rory McIlroy (+0.88)
• Patton Kizzire  (+0.87)
• Alex Noren (+0.76)

2. Good Drive %

Hamilton is a short golf course, so keeping the ball in the fairway, or just off, will be more important than bombing the ball this week. 

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

• Kelly Kraft (+89.3%)
• Daniel Berger (+87.9%)
• Nate Lashley  (+87.6%)
• Chan Kim  (+86.6%)
• Aaron Rai (+86.1%)

3. Bogey Avoidance %

I expect golfers to go low this week, in order to compete, limiting bogeys will be crucial. 

Bogey Avoidance % Over Past 24 Rounds:

• Alex Noren  (+10.6%)
• Brice Garnett  (+10.6%)
• Aaron Rai (+11.3%)
• Kevin Tway (+11.4%)
• Henrik Norlander (+11.4%)

4. Strokes Gained: Total in Canada

This stat will boost the players who’ve done well in Canada over the past 36 rounds. 

Strokes Gained: Total in Canada Over Past 36 Rounds

• Rory McIlroy (+4.28)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+3.07)
• Aaron Rai  (+2.91)
• C.T. Pan  (+2.80)
• Gary Woodland (+2.21)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting

Shorter courses with a lot of birdies being made tend to turn into putting contests. I believe a good putter will win the RBC Canadian Open.

Strokes Gained: Putting Over Past 24 Rounds

• Mackenzie Hughes  (+1.04)
• S.H. Kim  (+0.84)
• Matt Kuchar  (+0.74)
• Ben Griffin (+0.72)
• Sahith Theegala (+0.66)

The RBC Canadian Open Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (30%), Good Drive % (25%), Strokes Gained: Canada (15%), Bogey Avoidance % (15%), SG: Putting (15%).

• Rory McIlroy
• Sahith Theegala
• Patton Kizzire
• Justin Lower
• Shane Lowry
• Tommy Fleetwood
• Kelly Kraft
• Jhonnatan Vegas

2024 RBC Canadian Open Picks

Tommy fleetwood +1800 (fanduel).

Tommy Fleetwood was incredibly close to winning last year’s RBC Canadian Open. The Englishman took Canadian Nick Taylor to four playoff holes before losing on Taylor’s miraculous eagle putt from 72 feet.

Despite being at a different course this year, Fleetwood is still a great fit for this event. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 23rd in the field in good drive percentage and seventh in bogey avoidance. The course is a shorter, plotters track, which will suit Fleetwood’s ability to hit it accurately from tee to green.

Tommy has gained strokes off the tee in six consecutive events. Those events include some big events such as The Masters, the PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo Championship. In those six starts, he has three top-15 finishes.

It’s been well documented that Fleetwood is yet to win on American soil and has looked like a different player when in contention outside of the United States. While it’s most definitely a mental hurdle that the 33-year-old will need to overcome, it doesn’t hurt that this event will be north of the border.

Martin Ebert, who redesigned Royal Liverpool and Royal Portrush, redesigned Hamilton as well. Fleetwood finished 2nd at Royal Portrush in 2019 and T10 at Royal Liverpool in 2023.

Backing Tommy has been frustrating at times, but I’m still of the mindset that betting on talent will eventually pay dividends.

Alex Noren +2500 (BetMGM)

Alex Noren is in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career. The Swede has an incredible eight straight top-25’s on Tour, with two of those being top-ten finishes. Noren has gained strokes on approach and around the green in all eight starts and has gained strokes off the tee in seven of eight.

Despite the strong results, the concern with Noren has been his inability to truly get into contention. However, this golf course feels like the right one for him to change that. He’s not incredibly long off the tee, so the shorter layout should help him. In his last 24 rounds, Noren ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 8th in Good Drive Percentage and 3rd in Bogey Avoidance.

Noren’s ability to keep the ball in the ideal spots and limit mistakes should serve him well at Hamilton this week. In an event where accurate drivers should shine; he will have an advantage on the field. He hasn’t won on the PGA Tour, but the 41-year-old has ten wins on the European Tour. Being outside of the U.S. certainly won’t hurt Noren’s case.

Sam Burns +2800 (FanDuel)

Sam Burns had an excellent showing in Canada a few years ago, finishing in a tie for fourth place at the 2022 RBC Canadian Open a week after winning the Charles Schwab Challenge.

After a hot start to the season, Burns has struggled over the past few months, but has seemed to find some form with his irons in recent weeks. He finished T13 at the Wells Fargo Championship and gained 2.0 strokes on approach for the week. His irons were even better in the two rounds at the PGA Championship (+1.51 strokes per round), but a balky putter cost him the weekend, as he lost 5.1 strokes on the greens.

Burns is a player who can win an event with a hot putter and has done so in the past. He can make birdies in bunches and is one of the few players in the field that can win in both a difficult event and a shootout.

Robert MacIntyre +8000 (FanDuel)

Robert MacIntyre showed some life at the PGA Championship, finishing in a tie for 12th. For the week, MacIntyre ranked 16th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 18th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

The 27-year-old is a high upside player who has shown he can compete in big events. He’s also been putting great recently which I believe is one of the most important factors this week. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

We’ve seen MacIntyre play well at Open Championships and Martin Ebert, who redesigned Royal Liverpool and Royal Portrush, redesigned Hamilton as well. MacIntyre finished T6 at Royal Portrush in 2019.

Bobby Mac has gone toe-to-toe with some of the world’s best players at the Ryder Cup, and I believe has the right mentality to beat anyone if he finds himself in contention down the stretch.

The Wedge Guy: Early season wedge game tune-up

Depending on the part of the country you call home, you might just be getting into the 2024 golf season, or you might be several months into it. Either way, your scoring success this season – like every season – will likely drill down to how good your game is from 100 yards and in.

The best way to sharpen your wedge play is, surprise, spend some time refining and practicing your technique. Whether it’s winter rust or mid-season sloppiness, your wedge game can be a serious cause of frustration if and when it goes sour on you.

If you want to be sharp when it really counts, give it some time and attention. Start with a detailed look at your fundamentals – posture, alignment, ball position, grip, and grip pressure – and then advance to an examination of the actual chipping and pitching motion of the swing.

No matter what your skill level might be, I am convinced that time spent on the following drills will yield giant rewards in your scores and enjoyment of the game. There is nothing quite so demoralizing and maddening than to hit a good drive and better-than-average approach shot, then chunk or skull a simple chip or pitch, turning a par or bogie-at-worst into a double or even more.

Core activation

The key to a solid short game is to synchronize your arm swing with the rotation of your body core. They simply have to move together, back and through impact into the follow-through. When I’m about to start a short game session, I like to begin with the club extended in front of my body, with my upper arms close to my chest, then rotate my upper torso back and through, to give me the sensation that I am moving the club only with my core rotation, with the hands only having the job of holding on to it. In this drill, you want to ensure that the clubhead is exactly in front of your sternum as you rotate back and through. When you lower the club into the playing position, this puts the upper end of the grip pointing roughly at your belt buckle and it stays in that “attitude” through the backswing and follow through.

S-L-O-W motion

I believe one of the most misunderstood and destructive pieces of advice in the short game is to “accelerate through the ball”. What I see much too often is that the golfer fails to take a long enough backswing and then quickly jabs at the ball . . . all in the pursuit of “accelerating through the ball.” In reality, that is pretty hard NOT to do if you have any kind of follow through at all. Relying on that core activation move, I like to make very slow swings – back and through impact – experimenting with just how slow I can make the swing and still see some ball flight. You’ll be amazed at how slow a body rotation can be made and still make the ball fly in a nice trajectory.

I’m borrowing this term from Tiger Woods, who often spoke of hitting his iron shots through certain “windows,” i.e. first floor, second floor, etc. For your short game, I simplify this into hitting short pitch shots on three different flight trajectories – low, medium, and high. I have found the simplest way to do this is to use the same swing for each shot and determine the trajectory by where you place the ball in your set-up. Start by finding the ball position that gives you what you consider to be a “normal” trajectory with your sand wedge. Then, hit some shots with the ball just one inch back and forward of that spot and see what trajectory you get. You can then take that to another level by repeating the process with your other wedges, from your highest lofted to your lowest.

Ladder drill

For this exercise, I like to have some room on the range or practice area that lets me hit balls any distance I want, from ten feet out to about 25 yards, or even more if you can. I start by hitting a basic chip shot to fly precisely to a divot or piece of turf I’ve targeted about ten feet in front of me. The next shot I try to land where that ball stopped. I repeat that process until I have a line of balls from ten feet to 25 or so yards from me. With each shot, I repeat it until I can land my shot within a foot or less of my “target ball.”

The idea of this kind of practice with your short game is to hit so many shots that you feel like you can do anything with the ball, and you can take that confidence and execution skill to the course. You can literally work through a few hundred shots in an hour or so with these drills, and there’s nothing like repetition to build a skill set you can trust “under fire.”

Vincenzi’s 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge betting preview: Tony Finau ready to get back inside winner’s circle

After an action-packed week at the PGA Championship, the PGA Tour heads back to Texas to play the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth.

Colonial Country Club is a 7,209-yard par-70 and features Bentgrass greens. The difficulty of the event this week will be influenced by course setup and/or wind. The last four seasons have all produced winners with scores between -8 and -14, with the two most recent playing extremely difficult. Last year, Emiliano Grillo won in a playoff against Adam Schenk at -8, and in 2022, Sam Burns edged out Scottie Scheffler in a playoff at -9.

After last season’s event, the course was renovated by Gil Hanse. I expect the course to stay true to what the original design intended, but will improve in some areas that needed updating. Jordan Spieth, who is one of the most consistent players at Colonial, told Golfweek his thoughts on the changes.

“I always thought courses like this, Hilton Head, these classic courses that stand the test of time, it’s like what are you going to do to these places? I think that’s kind of everyone’s first response,” Spieth said. “Then I saw them, and I was like, wow, this looks really, really cool. It looks like it maintains the character of what Colonial is while creating some excitement on some holes that maybe could use a little bit of adjusting.”

The Charles Schwab Challenge will play host to 136 golfers this week, and the field is relatively strong despite it being the week after a major championship.

Some notable golfers in the field include Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Collin Morikawa, Min Woo Lee, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth and Akshay Bhatia. 

Past Winners at Charles Schwab Challenge

• 2023: Emiliano Grillo (-8)
• 2022: Sam Burns (-9)
• 2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)
• 2020: Daniel Berger (-15)
• 2019: Kevin Na (-13)
• 2018: Justin Rose (-20)
• 2017: Kevin Kisner (-10)
• 2016: Jordan Spieth (-17)

Key Stats For Colonial Country Club

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Colonial Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Approach will be a major factor this week. It grades out as the most important statistic historically in events played at Colonial Country Club, and that should be the case once again this week.

Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

• Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
• Ryan Moore  (1.00)
• Tom Hoge  (+0.96)
• Akshay Bhatia  (+0.85)
• Greyson Sigg  (+0.83)

2. Strokes Gained: Off The Tee

Both distance and accuracy will be important this week. Historically, shorter hitters who find the fairway have thrived at Colonial, but over the last few years we’ve seen a lot of the players in the field use big drives to eliminate the challenge of doglegs and fairway bunkers.

The rough can be thick and penal, so finding the fairway will remain important.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds

• Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
• Keith Mitchell  (+0.90)
• Kevin Yu  (+0.87)
• Alejandro Tosti  (+0.81)
• Min Woo Lee  (+0.80)

3. Strokes Gained: Total in Texas

Players who play well in the state of Texas tend to play well in multiple events during the Texas swing. 

Strokes Gained: Total in Texas over past 36 rounds

• Jordan Spieth (+2.16)
• Scottie Scheffler (+1.97)
• Tony Finau  (+1.91)
• Akshay Bhatia (+1.68)
• Justin Rose  (+1.62)

4. Course History

Course history seems to be much more important at Colonial Country Club than most other courses. The same players tend to pop up on leaderboards here year after year.

Course History per round Over Past 24 Rounds:

• Jordan Spieth (+2.31)
• Justin Rose  (+1.70)
• Harris English (+1.66)
• Webb Simpson (+1.54)
• Collin Morikawa (+1.47)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

The Bentgrass greens at Colonial are in immaculate condition, and putters who roll it pure are at an advantage. Historically, great putters have thrived at Colonial.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

• Denny McCarthy  (+1.08)
• Justin Rose  (+0.93)
• J.T. Poston  (+0.87)
• Maverick McNealy  (+0.85)
• Andrew Putnam (+0.74)

Charles Schwab Challenge Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (25%), Strokes Gained: Total in Texas (14%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (17%).

• Scottie Scheffler
• Billy Horschel
• Daniel Berger
• Maverick McNealy
• Adam Schenk
• Collin Morikawa
• Austin Eckroat
• Sepp Straka

2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks

Tony finau +3300 (fanduel).

Tony Finau hit the ball incredibly well at last week’s PGA Championship. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 9.3 strokes in the category, which was his second-best performance on approach this season (Farmers T6). Finau’s tie for 18th at Valhalla is ideal considering the fact that he played very well but didn’t have the mental and emotional strain of hitting shots deep into contention in a major championship. He should be sharp and ready to go for this week’s event.

Finau has been phenomenal in the state of Texas. He ranks third in Strokes Gained: Total in the Lone Star state in his past 36 rounds and just recently put up a T2 finish at the Texas Children’s Houston Open last month. He also has success at Colonial. He finished 2nd at the course in 2019 and T4 at the course in 2022. He missed the cut last year, however, that seems to be an aberration as he hasn’t finished worse than 34th in his seven other trips to Fort Worth.

Finau has gained strokes off the tee in 10 of his 13 starts this season, and his ability to hit the ball long and straight should give him an advantage this week at Colonial. He’s also gained strokes on approach in 11 of his 13 starts this year. His tee to green excellence should work wonders this week, as Colonial is a challenging test. The concern, as usual, for Tony, is the putter. He’s in the midst of the worst putting season of his career, but with a target score in the -8 to -13 range this week, he should be able to get away with a few mistakes on the greens.

Finau is one of the most talented players in the field and I believe he can put it all together this week in Texas to get his first win since last year’s Mexico Open.

Sungjae Im +5000 (BetRivers)

Sungjae Im is really starting to play some good golf of late, despite his missed cut at last week’s PGA Chmapionship. Im missed the cut on the number, which may be a blessing in disguise that allows him to rest and also keeps the price reasonable on him this week. The missed cut was due to some woeful putting, which is atypical for Sungjae. He gained strokes slightly both off the tee and on approach, therefore I’m not concerned with the performance.

Prior to his trip to Valhalla, Sungjae was beginning to show why he has been such a good player over the course of his career. He finished T12 at Heritage and then won an event in Korea. He followed that up with a T4 at Quail Hollow in a “Signature Event”, which was his best performance on the PGA Tour this season. At the Wells Fargo, the South Korean was 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and showed his skill around and on the greens.

Sungjae has had some success at Colonial. He’s finished T10 and T15 with two missed cuts scattered in between over the past four seasons. When he is in form, which I believe he now is, the course suits him well.

Im hasn’t won since 2021, which is an underachievement given how talented I believe he is. That can change this week with a win at Colonial.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000 (FanDuel)

I absolutely love this spot for Christiaan Bezuidenhout. The South African is having a fantastic season and this is a course that should suit his strengths.

Prior the PGA Championship, Bez hadn’t finished worse than 28th in six consecutive starts. He’s not the type of player who can get to -20 in a “birdie fest” but can grind in a tougher event. He is a terrific player in the wind and putts extremely well on Bentgrass greens. Bezuidenhout has also had success both in Texas and at Colonial. He ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas over his past 36 rounds.

Part of what has made Bezuidenhout play so well this year is his increase in ball speed, which has been the recipe for success for plenty of players, including the winner of last week’s PGA Championship, Xander Schauffele. Bezuidenhout’s coach shared his ball speed gains on Instagram a few weeks back.

https://www.instagram.com/p/C6FCvK3S97A/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Now at close to 170mph ball speed, that isn’t enough to compete at the monstrous major championship courses in my opinion, however it’s plenty to contend at Colonial.

Bezuidenhout has been one of the most consistent performers on the PGA Tour this season and a win would put an exclamation point on what’s been his best year on Tour to date.

Brendon Todd +12500 (BetRivers)

Brendon Todd is the type of player that’s hit or miss, but usually shows up on the courses he has a strong history on and plays well. Todd finished T8 at Colonial in 2021 and 3rd in 2022. He’s also flashed some Texas form this year as he finished T5 at the Valero Texas Open in April.

Todd doesn’t contend all that often, but when he does, he’s shown in the past that he has the capability to win a golf tournament. He has three PGA Tour wins including a win in Texas back in 2014 (TPC Four Seasons).

Todd is a player who can rise to the top if some of the elite players aren’t in contention after a grueling PGA Championship.

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What Is Strokes Gained In Golf?

You might have heard of the term 'Strokes Gained', but what does it mean? We speak to an expert to find out...

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'Strokes Gained' is fast becoming one of the most used terms in the world of golf . It is seen by many as the most definitive marker of player performance at the professional level, and thanks to the latest partnerships and technology it's even moving into the amateur game. But what exactly is 'Strokes Gained'?

To get a better grasp of the term, we spoke with Sal Syed, CEO and Co-Founder of Arccos , a company which integrates automatic shot tracking, with artificial intelligence, to deliver insights that help players maximise their potential.

What Is Strokes Gained?

The simplest way to define Strokes Gained is a method of analysing each facet of a players game in comparison to the rest of the players in the field or at the same level. You can do this across recent performances, or even compare the best players in each statistical category over the past 20 years !

The main categories where the comparison is drawn are off-the-tee, approach, tee-to-green, around-the-green and putting. There is also a useful measure, titled Strokes Gained: Total, which gives an overall indicator based on the player's full game.

For decades, there wasn't a consistently used metric to measure this data, with ShotLink becoming available on the PGA Tour in 2007. Developed by Professor Mark Broadie at Colombia University, the whole philosophy of 'Strokes Gained' came about because the data was made available to academic institutions from that year. Ever since, term has grown in importance.

Q. In the simplest way possible, from an Arccos perspective, can you explain what Strokes Gained is, please?

S: Sure. Without getting into the technical details I would say it is the right way to analyse your game. So let's say you are shooting 85 and want to shoot 80. The difference of five strokes from where you are to the average 80 is distributed over various aspects of your game and what Strokes Gaines is able to do is tell you where you are losing the most strokes whether that be putting or whatever.

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So, in the simplest form, Strokes Gaines is doing the correct analysis on your game to help you understand where your strengths and weaknesses are. Traditional stats in golf can be misleading, so for example they used to look at fairways hit as a good metric for how good a driver of the ball you are, but you could be driving it 150 yards and hitting every fairway, and you know that's not good.

The number of putts is another. You may be two-putting from five-feet, or two-putting from 50 feet, one you are annoyed about, the other you are happy about. So Strokes Gained doesn't look at number of putts, it takes into account how far away did you two-putt from, so it is doing the right analysis for you to understand and breakdown your game.

Let me give you a simple example of an eight foot putt. The average PGA Tour pro makes 50% of their putts from eight feet. So then their expected number of putts from eight feet is 1.5 putts. And so, if you make one putt you gain 0.5 strokes but if you miss it you lost that half a stroke. So for each shot we are assessing how many strokes you are gaining or losing versus the benchmark.

And we at Arccos are able to quantify, aggregate and present that information in a very easy to understand way because in the end it just comes down down to how many strokes did you lose in an aspect of the game.

Q. What are some of the aspects that are more important, or what does Strokes Gained tell us about some misconceptions about the game?

S: Probably the number one misconception is that old saying 'driving for show, putt for dough'. Driving is really important.

If you are a good driver of the golf ball it positions you well and you gain a lot of strokes, and the golf world is certainly realising that. But at the same time, the accuracy is important because if you hit a bad drive and hit a recovery shot, you are losing strokes there because of your drive. If you are punching back out, that's half a shot penalty, so it is not all about distance.

As I mentioned earlier the number of putts is a misconception because it makes people think there putting may need work whereas actually it is approach game or around the green aspects that need practice. Really, the number of putts doesn't tell you literally anything.

Q. How does Strokes Gained account for different courses, because some are obviously harder than others?

S: Well for Arccos, it has so many rounds of shots taken that our algorithms are targeted and take difficulty into account. We also account for different flag positions because holes can play drastically differently dependent on the flag so it is all in the data. So when we develop our Strokes Gained models, we take that into account.

Ideally, in the future for Arccos, I want to take things like rough height, green speeds, weather conditions, wind, wind direction too because those things do have an impact.

Q. Looking to amateur golf, because Arccos has access to so much data, what would you say is the most common area where people lose strokes? 

S: So the reality is everybody is different. Arccos breaks it down into driving, approach, short game and putting, and I would honestly say it is evenly spread.

The other thing that is interesting is your golf game is not static. You are getting older, you are experimenting, you may have lessons and so on. So your game is constantly fluctuating and that is true for PGA Tour players as well as beginners.

Q. When it comes to analysing Strokes Gained, because it can be quite complicated, what tips do you have for people to actually understand that data and implement into their game?

S: Sure, well it is very simple to implement because with Arccos, when players look at their last five rounds and see where the weaknesses are, that gives players the ability to go and work on something, to put extra effort into that facet.

And we have seen that when people understand weaknesses, they improve at that aspect the fastest because they put more practice in. What we are able to point out are the three things that require your attention and work on them. Even when you take lessons, share that with your instructor so they have a clearer idea of how you play on the course.

Q. How can Arccos make things easier for coaching, but also maybe a buying decision?

S: Yeah there is no doubt. In my case, if I am trying two putters and deciding which one is better, I have three rounds with one and three with the other and that provides a lot of data to show which I perform better with.

So I think in the future, when it comes to a lesson, or a purchase you are making, it has to be tied to 'is this helping me play better golf? is this helping me to improve?'

And I think this is how golfing decisions will be made in the future, and that's how decisions are made on the PGA Tour right now.

Key Strokes Gained Terms

Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee

The measure of a player's performance with their tee shots on all par-4 and par-5 holes.

Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green

The measure of all shots taken by a player from the tee box to the green.

Strokes Gained: Approach

The measure of performance on all approach shots. Approach shots are categorised as any shot not hit from the tee on par-4 and par-5 holes, and any tee shots on par-3s. This also doesn't include any shots on or around the green.

Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green

The measure of player performance with any shot up to 30 yards from the edge of the green, excluding any shots taken on the putting surface.

Strokes Gained: Putting

The measure of strokes gained or lost on the green, based on length of putts and likely make percentage.

Barry Plummer is our Staff Writer, joining in January 2024 after seven years as a PE Teacher. He now writes about instruction, working closely with Golf Monthly's Top 50 Coaches to provide hints and tips about all aspects of the game. As someone who came into golf at a later age, Barry is very passionate about supporting the growth of the game and creating opportunities for everyone to access it. A member at Sand Moor Golf Club in Leeds, he looks forward to getting out on the course at least once a week and making up for lost time in the pursuit of a respectable handicap.

Barry is currently playing:

Driver: Ping G425

Hybrid: TaylorMade Stealth 4 Hybrid

Irons: Mizuno JPX 921 4-PW

Wedges: TaylorMade RAC 60, Callaway Jaws MD5 54

Putter: TaylorMade Spider Tour

Martin Kaymer hopes a return to Pinehurst will give his game a spark as he still struggles with the fact that US Open win a decade ago was his last tournament victory

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Strokes Gained, Explained: How to Use PGA TOUR Data in Betting, DFS

Photo credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.

Golf has a lot of available data, but it's not all predictive of future success, mostly because some of it doesn't explain what's actually happening on the golf course that well.

Let's take an easy example: Two golfers could hit an equal amount of greens in regulation in a single round … let's say 60%.

There are obviously a ton of details missing, including:

• Were they hitting it from the same distance?
• Was it in the fairway or rough?
• Where on the green did the ball land?

There's a big difference between sticking approach shots within five feet vs. hitting the green but having a 60-foot putt every time.

That's where Strokes Gained comes in.

Strokes Gained Definition

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer is truly playing by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field .

Columbia University professor Mark Broadie invented the "Strokes Gained" concept utilizing ShotLink data, which is a proprietary software that uses lasers and cameras to capture a ton of information on every shot hit by a golfer.

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Using the millions of data points it has, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he's gaining strokes on the field.

Here's a good example, per the PGA TOUR . On average, it takes TOUR players the following number of shots to get the ball in the hole from the fairway:

• 2.0 shots to hole out: 7 yards
• 2.5 shots to hole out: 30 yards
• 3.0 shots to hole out: 168 yards

If the player finds the cup in two shots from 30 yards out, he's gained 0.5 strokes. If it takes three shots, he's lost 0.5 strokes. The TOUR's data can do the same thing for every distance and situation.

Another great example, per the TOUR: It takes players on average the same number of shots to finish the hole from 70 yards in the rough (2.92) is it does from 150 yards in the fairway (2.92).

Every situation in golf is different — Strokes Gained measures how players handle them relative to the situation.

What Have We Learned From Strokes Gained?

What Strokes Gained data has revealed is that the old golf adage "Drive for Show, Putt for Dough" is wrong. The best players hit the ball the furthest off the tee and stick their approach shots close.

Those two factors tend to be more predictive week to week than putting, which can be very random and hard to predict. So in general, you want to bet on the best ball strikers and hope their putters get hot, not the best putters in hopes that their irons come around. And, with the " BetMGM bonus code ," you can enhance your betting experience.

Strokes Gained Data from the PGA TOUR

The PGA TOUR has so  much data from ShotLink, and they break down Strokes Gained to a very detailed level. For example, on their website you can not only see strokes gained on all approach shots, but specifically how players have performed from within 100 yards, 100-125 yards, 125-150 yards and so on.

But really, there are six main Strokes Gained categories you need to know:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

Strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: around-the-green, strokes gained: putting, strokes gained: tee-to-green.

• Total Strokes Gained

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee is exactly how it sounds. It measures a player's performance relative to the field on initial shots — typically driver, but it also measures par-3 initial shots.

Among the golfers who excel here as of June 2020 include Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele — the elite drivers in the world.

Strokes Gained: Approach measures a players shots after the initial drive, so it highlights which golfers have excelled in those crucial second and third shots.

At the top of the leaderboard here you'll find the world's best ball-strikers, including Collin Morikawa, Marc Leishman, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Paul Casey and Hideki Matsuyama.

Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green is similar to scrambling; it measures how a player performs chipping and getting up and down.

At the top of this list you'll find the world's best short-game players, including Jason Day, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth and Phil Mickelson.

Strokes Gained: Putting is pretty self-explanatory; it measures how many strokes a player gains on the field with the short stick.

At the top of this list you'll obviously find the world's best putters — Patrick Reed, Kevin Na, Matt Kuchar, Jordan Spieth, etc. — although note this is the most volatile of the Strokes Gained metrics.

A lot of analysts believe putting is the most random of golf skills, and thus a player high in SG: Putting for a couple days in a tournament might regress if luck doesn't go their way as much.

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green is perhaps the best metric of them all. It's essentially Total Strokes Gained — which is the sum of off-the-tee, approach, around-the-green and putting — minus putting.

As mentioned above, putting can be quite random day-to-day and week-to-week. A golfer who is constantly giving himself five-foot birdie putts might have a worse score than one who is draining 15-footers, but you'll want to bet on the former long-term. Things will even out.

Where to Find Strokes Gained Data

The PGA Tour houses all the Strokes Gained data you could ever need.

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2024 U.S. Open odds, golf predictions, picks: Scottie Scheffler projection by model that won last 2 majors

Scottie scheffler, the no. 1 player in world golf, will seek his third career major championship in the 2024 u.s. open at pinehurst no. 2.

Scottie Scheffler has exploded on the scene since joining the PGA Tour in 2020. He has already recorded 10 victories on tour, including four in 2024. He won his second major at the Masters in April and will enter the 2024 U.S. Open as the odds-on betting favorite. According to the latest 2024 U.S. Open odds, Scheffler is the 4-1 favorite (risk $100 to win $400). The No. 1-ranked player in the world is followed by Rory McIlroy (9-1), Xander Schauffele (10-1), Brooks Koepka (12-1) and Jon Rahm (12-1) in the U.S. Open odds 2024.

Other top contenders in the 2024 U.S. Open field include Ludvig Aberg (14-1), Viktor Hovland (18-1) and Collin Morikawa (18-1). Should your 2024. U.S. Open prediction include backing Scheffler to lift the Claret Jug, or will a longshot like Jordan Spieth (35-1), Hideki Matsuyama (35-1) or Jason Day (45-1) win the third major of the year? Before locking in your 2024 U.S. Open picks or Scottie Scheffler props, be sure to  see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Jon Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 12 majors entering the weekend, including three straight Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now with the U.S. Open 2024 field taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 U.S. Open predictions 

One major surprise: Justin Thomas, a 33-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Thomas is a proven winner on the PGA Tour, having racked up 15 career victories. He has won two major championships and will enter the U.S. Open 2024 full of confidence.

The 31-year-old has finished T-8 or better in two of his last three starts and is among the best iron players on the PGA Tour. In fact, Thomas ranks seventh in strokes gained: approach to green (0.697). He has struggled with accuracy off the tee this season, ranking 110th at 60.23%, but he's still averaging 4.43 birdies per round, the seventh-best mark on tour. If he's driving the ball well at Pinehurst, Thomas will have a chance at being in contention for the Claret Jug. 

The model has also examined where Scottie Scheffler finishes. Scheffler has racked up four wins already this season, which includes his second major championship at the Masters in April. Scheffler also finished on top of the leaderboard at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Players Championship, and RBC Heritage.

He's finished outside the top-10 just once this season and is coming off a T-2 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge in his latest start. He's been able to dominate the opposition thanks to his incredible ball-striking. Scheffler enters the 2024 U.S. Open ranked first in greens in regulation percentage (73.90%) and strokes gained: approach to green (1.348). He's also been effective on the green, ranking first in putting average (1.664), 12th in putts per round (28.00) and 19th in one-putt percentage (43.38%).  The model just locked in its Scottie Scheffler U.S. Open picks here. .

How to make 2024 U.S. Open picks

The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2024 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the U.S. Open 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the PGA Championship .

2024 U.S. Open odds, field

Get full 2024 U.S. Open picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler 4-1 Rory McIlroy 9-1 Xander Schauffele 10-1 Brooks Koepka 12-1 Jon Rahm 12-1 Ludvig Aberg 14-1 Viktor Hovland 18-1 Collin Morikawa 18-1 Bryson DeChambeau 20-1 Patrick Cantlay 22-1 Wyndham Clark 22-1 Joaquin Niemann 25-1 Cameron Smith 25-1 Max Homa 30-1 Justin Thomas 33-1 Cameron Young 35-1 Dustin Johnson 35-1 Jordan Spieth 35-1 Hideki Matsuyama 35-1 Shane Lowry 40-1 Sahith Theegala 40-1 Tom Kim 40-1 Tony Finau 40-1 Sungjae Im 40-1 Matt Fitzpatrick 40-1 Jason Day 45-1 Tommy Fleetwood 50-1 Min Woo Lee 50-1 Tyrrell Hatton 50-1 Brian Harman 55-1 Corey Conners 60-1 Sam Burns 60-1 Patrick Reed 60-1 Si Woo Kim 65-1 Justin Rose 65-1 Sepp Straka 70-1 Louis Oosthuizen 75-1 Abraham Ancer 75-1 Rickie Fowler 75-1 Adam Scott 75-1 Talor Gooch 75-1 Russell Henley 90-1 Daniel Berger 100-1 Keegan Bradley 100-1 Keith Mitchell 125-1 Ryan Fox 125-1 J.T. Poston 125-1 Billy Horschel 125-1 Tiger Woods 125-1 Sergio Garcia 125-1 Thomas Pieters 150-1 Kurt Kitayama 150-1 Phil Mickelson 150-1 Mito Pereira 150-1 Denny McCarthy 150-1 Harris English 150-1 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 150-1 Adam Schenk 175-1 Emiliano Grillo 175-1 Austin Eckroat 175-1 Robert MacIntyre 175-1 Marc Leishman 175-1 Adam Hadwin 175-1 Lucas Glover 200-1 Nick Taylor 200-1 Davis Riley 200-1 Mackenzie Hughes 200-1 Jason Kokrak 200-1 Harold Varner III 225-1 Seamus Power 225-1 Taylor Moore 250-1 Ben Kohles 250-1 Gary Woodland 250-1 Aaron Wise 250-1 Francisco Molinari 350-1 Joel Dahmen 350-1 Martin Kaymer 500-1 Bernhard Langer 750-1  

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Featured Groups: 2024 ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer

Arpichaya yubol out in front after a 61 at the shoprite lpga classic presented by acer.

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Take a look at just a few of the featured groups this week at the ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer, using  KPMG Performance Insights :

Thursday, 8:41 a.m.* – Jin Young Ko/Atthaya Thitikul/Brooke Henderson

Jin Young Ko is making her eighth start of the 2024 LPGA Tour season at the ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer as she works to collect her first victory since the 2023 Cognizant Founders Cup. While she has yet to find the winner’s circle this year, things have been steady for the Republic of Korea native, who has recorded four top-20 results in seven tournaments this season, including a tie for eighth in her title defense at the HSBC Women’s World Championship and a tie for fourth at the JM Eagle LA Championship presented by Plastpro. This is just the fourth time she has teed it up in the ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer, and after tying for 61st in 2018, she finished in a tie for second at the event in 2021 and tied for 17th in her last appearance in 2022. According to KPMG Performance Insights, Ko’s long game has carried her through so far this year, as the major champion ranks third on the LPGA Tour in proximity to the hole (22’11) and is fourth in strokes gained approach (+1.20). She also ranks in the top 20 in scoring average (16, 70.89) and strokes gained total (17, +1.09). Ko finished T29 in her most recent start at the U.S. Women’s Open presented by Ally.

The ShopRite LPGA Classic is Atthaya Thitikul’s fifth event of the year, and even though she has been dealing with a thumb injury throughout the season, the Thailand native has played some solid golf in 2024. She opened her third season on the LPGA Tour with a T12 showing at The Chevron Championship, and after missing the cut at the Cognizant Founders Cup, Thitikul recorded back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Mizuho Americas Open (T7) and the U.S. Women’s Open (T6). Those performances saw the two-time LPGA Tour winner gain 2.45 strokes total on the field as well as gain 1.14 strokes with her putting, according to KPMG Performance Insights. This is just her second time playing in this event since she joined the LPGA Tour, and Thitikul will be working to improve upon her T6 result that she recorded last year at Seaview Resort’s Bay Course. She was ranked inside the top 10 in a few statistical categories en route to that solid finish in 2023, including strokes gained approach (8th), strokes gained off the tee (9th) and strokes gained putting (9th), according to data provided by KPMG Performance Insights. Despite her limited schedule this season, Thitikul is still inside the top 15 of the Rolex Women’s World Golf Rankings and currently sits at No. 12, meaning she is qualified for the Paris Olympics in August at the moment.

One of Brooke Henderson’s 13 LPGA Tour victories came at the ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer in 2022. She defeated Lindsey Weaver-Wright in a playoff that year at Seaview Resort’s Bay Course to collect the first of what would be two wins that season for the Canadian. The 26-year-old hasn’t found victory lane on the LPGA Tour since last year’s Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions and will be looking to rekindle the momentum she had in 2022 as she works to earn a 14th Tour title in the Garden State this week. Despite the winless drought, Henderson has played some incredibly solid golf this season, recording five top-10 finishes in 2024, three of which were T3s or better and the most notable of which is a tie for third that came at The Chevron Championship. According to KPMG Performance Insights, the two-time major champion has the lowest score to par of any player at this tournament in the last three years, combining for 29-under over her last nine rounds in Galloway, N.J., and is statistically trending heading into this week in the Garden State. Henderson is currently ranked ninth on the LPGA Tour in strokes gained total (+1.45), 14th in strokes gained driving (+0.57) and 16th in strokes gained tee to green (+1.11). She is also third in rounds under par (26) and fifth in rounds in the 60s (15).

Thursday, 8:52 a.m.* – Yuka Saso/Hinako Shibuno/Hannah Green

Yuka Saso got to take home the Harton S. Semple trophy for a second time last week at the U.S. Women’s Open presented by Ally. While Lancaster Country Club kicked everyone else’s teeth in, Saso hung tough and battled through, playing her final nine holes in 3-under par to collect her second major title, second LPGA Tour victory and first win since the 2021 U.S. Women’s Open at The Olympic Club in California. According to KPMG Performance Insights, Saso’s putting was the key to her victory in the Keystone State, as she led the field in strokes gained putting (+13.5), feet of putts made (420 feet) and putts made from 10 feet or further (14). The 22-year-old will look to keep that momentum rolling this week in Galloway, N.J., as she makes her second career start at the ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer. Saso finished in a tie for 19th in her tournament debut in 2021 after carding rounds of 67, 70 and 69 at Seaview Resort’s Bay Course. In addition to her major victory, Saso has earned four other top-20 results so far this season, including a tie for ninth at the T-Mobile Match Play presented by MGM Rewards. Statistically, the Japan native is ranked fourth in strokes gained putting (+1.10), sixth in strokes gained total (+1.67) and 12th in strokes gained driving (+0.60), according to KPMG Performance Insights.

Hinako Shibuno had an impressive week at the U.S. Women’s Open, ultimately finishing runner-up to Saso at Lancaster Country Club to record her best LPGA Tour result since she also came second at the 2022 LOTTE Championship presented by Hoakalei. The top-five showing in Pennsylvania was a breath of fresh air for the 25-year-old who before last week had missed six cuts and earned a best finish of T50 so far this season. Despite the struggles, Shibuno ranks in the top 10 in strokes gained putting (9, +0.97), according to KPMG Performance Insights, and ranks 13th in putting average (29.11) this year. This week marks her third start in the ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer, and in her two previous appearances, Shibuno tied for 27th in 2020 and tied for 17th in 2022 as an LPGA Tour rookie.

Hannah Green is the only player besides Nelly Korda to have multiple wins on the LPGA Tour this season, capturing the HSBC Women’s World Championship in March in Singapore and then successfully defending her title at the JM Eagle LA Championship presented by Plastpro in April at Wilshire Country Club. The Rolex Women’s World Golf Rankings No. 5 has recorded three additional T21 or better results in 2024 at the Ford Championship presented by KCC (T21), the Cognizant Founders Cup (T18) and last week’s U.S. Women’s Open presented by Ally, where Green ultimately carded a final-round, 4-under 66 to claim a share of 16th. Statistically, the Australian is at the top of her game, ranking second in scoring average (70.06), fifth in strokes gained total (+1.67), sixth in birdies or better and 12th in strokes gained approach (+0.92), according to KPMG Performance Insights. Her stellar play this year also has Green ranked second in the Race to the CME Globe and third on the Official Money List. This is her fourth time competing in the ShopRite LPGA Classic, and in her three previous starts, she has earned a best finish of T57 in 2021.

Thursday, 1:30 p.m.* – Ashleigh Buhai/Megan Khang/Stacy Lewis

Ashleigh Buhai collected her second career LPGA Tour victory at the ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer last season. The South African won by just a single shot over Hyo Joo Kim after carding back-to-back 65s on the weekend at Seaview Resort’s Bay Course, claiming her second Tour title in as many seasons in Galloway, N.J. Statistically, Buhai was on fire this week last season, gaining 2.02 strokes on the field per round with her putting and finishing the tournament ranked fourth in greens in regulation, fifth in strokes gained approach and sixth in strokes gained putting, according to KPMG Performance Insights. This year has seen some solid play from the 35-year-old who has only missed two cuts and recorded three top-25 results in nine total starts, the best of which was a tie for 13th at the JM Eagle LA Championship presented by Plastpro. While she doesn’t lead any notable statistical categories so far this season, Buhai could still be a threat to contend this week at the ShopRite LPGA Classic, particularly as she knows how to go low at this venue.

Megan Khang is making her fourth start in the ShopRite LPGA Classic this week, and in her three prior appearances, this event hasn’t been too kind to the Massachusetts native. She missed the cut in her tournament debut in 2017 and then withdrew from the tournament in 2018, finally righting the ship with a T13 finish at Seaview Resort’s Bay Course in 2020. This is her 11th start of the 2024 season, and so far, Khang has played solidly, recording four top-15 results, the best of which is a solo third that came at the LPGA Drive On Championship at Bradenton Country Club. Her success can be attributed to her ball-striking this season, as Khang leads the LPGA Tour in both proximity to the hole from 125 to 150 yards (17 feet) and strokes gained tee to green (+1.92), according to data provided by KPMG Performance Insights. She also ranks third in strokes gained approach (+1.30), 13th in strokes gained around the green (+0.39) and 13th in greens in regulation (70.88%). Khang became a Rolex First-Time Winner at the CPKC Women’s Open last season and is looking to qualify for her first Olympics this year in Paris, something Khang is going to need to make a late push to accomplish as she is currently one Rolex Rankings spot outside of automatic qualification.

U.S. Solheim Cup Captain Stacy Lewis might have a lot on her plate at the moment as she readies for the 19th playing of the biennial team competition at Robert Trent Jones Golf Club this September, but that isn’t stopping her from playing on the LPGA Tour as much as she can. This week’s ShopRite LPGA Classic marks her ninth start of the year, and Lewis will be looking to improve upon a season-best result of T28 that she most recently posted at the Mizuho Americas Open at Liberty National Golf Club. She is more than familiar with what it takes to have success at this venue, having won the 2012 and 2014 editions of the event and earned three additional top-20 finishes. Lewis is making her 15th ShopRite LPGA Classic start this week, first competing in Galloway, N.J., back in 2010.

*Off No. 10

For a full list of tee times, please  click here .

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Rory McIlroy betting profile: The Memorial Tournament Presented By Workday

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Rory McIlroy hits the links June 6-9 in the 2024 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday at Muirfield Village GC following a fourth-place finish in the RBC Canadian Open, which was his most recent tournament.

The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday tournament and course info

• Date: June 6-9, 2024
• Location: Dublin, OH
• Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
• Par: 72 / 7,569 yards
• Purse: $20M
• Previous winner: Viktor Hovland

At the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday

• McIlroy's average finish has been 17th, and his average score 3-under, over his last six appearances at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday.
• In McIlroy's most recent appearance at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, in 2023, he finished seventh after posting a score of 3-under.
• With numbers of 3.322 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (eighth in field), 0.516 in SG: Approach the Green (40th), and 6.068 in SG: Putting (third), Viktor Hovland won this tournament in 2023.
• In addition, Hovland's average driving distance was 317.1 (16th in field), he hit % of greens in regulation (), and he averaged 25.25 putts per round (second).

McIlroy's recent history at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday

Mcilroy's recent performances.

• McIlroy has finished atop the leaderboard once while also earning two top-five finishes over his last five events.
• McIlroy has finished within three shots of the leader in two of his last five appearances. Over that same span, he's finished with a better-than-average score five times.
• He has finished with an average score of -9 those five times he's made the cut.
• Off the tee, Rory McIlroy has averaged 325.0 yards in his past five tournaments.
• McIlroy is averaging 2.218 in terms of Strokes Gained: Putting in his past five tournaments.
• McIlroy is averaging 10.586 Strokes Gained: Total in his past five tournaments.

McIlroy's advanced stats and rankings

• McIlroy has a Strokes Gained: Off the Tee average of 0.861 this season, which ranks third on TOUR. Meanwhile, his average driving distance (318.1 yards) ranks second.
• In terms of Strokes Gained: Approach, McIlroy ranks 20th on TOUR with a round-by-round average of 0.453. Additionally, he ranks 41st with a Greens in Regulation mark of 67.44%.
• On the greens, McIlroy has delivered a 0.302 Strokes Gained: Putting mark this season, which ranks him 40th on TOUR, while he ranks 42nd with a putts-per-round average of 28.49. He has broken par 28.81% of the time (ninth on TOUR).

McIlroy's best finishes

• McIlroy has participated in 12 tournaments this season, and he has collected two wins along with four top-five finishes.
• In those 12 tournaments, he made the cut on 12 occasions.
• With 1930 points, McIlroy currently sits third in the FedExCup standings.

McIlroy's best Strokes Gained performances

• This season, McIlroy put up his best Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee effort at the Wells Fargo Championship, ranking No. 1 in the field at 6.117. In that tournament, he finished first.
• McIlroy's best Strokes Gained: Approach effort this season came at the Valero Texas Open, where his 7.404 mark ranked third in the field.
• When it comes to Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, McIlroy put up his best effort this season at the Wells Fargo Championship (May 2024), ranking ninth in the field with a mark of 3.279.
• At the RBC Canadian Open in May 2024, McIlroy posted his best Strokes Gained: Putting mark this season (5.827). That ranked 12th in the field.
• McIlroy delivered his best Strokes Gained: Total mark this season (19.926) at the Wells Fargo Championship in May 2024. That ranked No. 1 in the field.

McIlroy's Strokes Gained rankings

Mcilroy's past results.

All stats in this article are accurate for McIlroy as of the start of the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday.

Note: The PGA TOUR has created this story via a machine-learning model using data from ShotLink , powered by CDW, in addition to player performance data. While we strive for accuracy and quality, please note that the information provided may not be entirely error-free.