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Is flying safer than driving?

There have been effectively zero deaths per 100 million passenger miles traveled by air in the US each year from 2002 to 2020.

Published Tue, December 19, 2023 by the USAFacts Team

Air travel [1] is safer than driving on highways in the US, according to data from the US Department of Transportation (DoT). Passenger injuries and fatalities in air travel were significantly lower than in passenger cars and trucks for each year between 2002 and 2020. Flying is also safer than riding subways [2] , trains [3] , buses [4] , and motorcycles.

What is the safest way to travel?

Air travel is the safest form of transit in the US. Injury and death rates in air travel in the US have been near zero each year since 2002, and the number of aviation accidents declined from 2000 to 2021.

Comparing passenger injuries

From 2002 to 2020, there were 614 total serious injuries in US air travel , an average of 32 injuries per year. In that same time, 44 million people were injured in passenger cars and trucks on US highways — that’s approximately 2.3 million per year.

The average annual injury rate for air travel was .01 injuries per 100 million passenger miles traveled, compared with 48 injuries for the same distance traveled in cars and trucks.

Comparing passenger deaths

From 2002 to 2020, there were 755 deaths during air travel in the US on domestic carriers. Nearly 75% of these deaths occurred in accidents involving on-demand air taxis, smaller aircraft of 30 seats or fewer that operate on an on-demand basis. Passenger car and truck accidents logged 498,016 deaths on US highways over that same time frame, an average of 26,211 fatalities per year.

Effectively, there have been zero deaths per 100 million passenger air travel miles each year from 2002 to 2020. The average annual fatality rate over that time was .01 deaths per 100 million miles traveled. The death rate for passenger cars and trucks on US highways — though it declined from 0.7 deaths per 100 million passenger miles in 2002 to 0.5 deaths in 2020 — remains significantly higher.

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Injuries and deaths for different modes of transportation

The DoT records injuries and fatalities for all modes of passenger transportation, including motorcycles, railroads, subways and light rail systems, and buses. Each of those modes had higher injury and fatality rates than air travel in the US in 2019.

How safe is highway driving?

About 2.3 million people were injured on US highways in 2020. More than half (54%) of those injuries occurred in passenger cars, while 34% were in light trucks, 4% on motorcycles, and 2% were in large trucks. The remainder were pedestrians, bicyclists, or occupants of an unknown vehicle.

There were also 30,250 vehicle-occupant fatalities on highways in 2020: 45% of those happened in passenger cars, 34% in light trucks, and 18% on motorcycles. The remainder were occupants of large trucks. In addition to the 30,250 vehicle passenger deaths on highways, there were also 6,516 pedestrian deaths and 938 bicyclist deaths.

Injury rates for passenger vehicles and trucks have gradually declined, from more than 54 injuries per 100 million passenger miles in 2016 to just under 43 in 2021.

How safe is public transit?

US public transit systems accounted for 7,209 passenger injuries and 29 fatalities in 2022, the most recent year of available DoT data. Public transit includes buses, heavy rail (including subways), light rail, monorails, ferries, and other modes of transportation operated by public transit operators.

Buses in particular accounted for 82% of passenger injuries from public transit in 2022 and 34% of transit passenger deaths.

How safe is passenger railroad travel?

Passenger rail includes commuter rail and Amtrak but not local subway systems and streetcars. According to preliminary 2022 data, there were 677 passenger injuries and seven passenger fatalities on passenger railroad services, according to the DoT.

Railroad passenger injuries reached a recent high of 1,812 in 2016 and fell into the triple digits during 2020 (401 injuries), 2021 (525), and 2022 (677). Over the same period, the number of railroad miles traveled fell 66%.

How safe is air travel?

In 2019, US air carriers reported 31 serious injuries and 38 fatalities, according to the DoT. In 2020, the latest year on record, there were 17 injuries and 26 deaths; as noted, most of these were in on-demand air taxis. (Between 2019 and 2020, the number of air passenger miles traveled also fell, by nearly 60%.)

Forty percent of all air travel deaths in this century happened in 2001, the year of the September 11 terrorist attacks.

Explore more data on US transportation and infrastructure , see how many pedestrians and cyclists are killed by cars , and get the facts directly in your inbox by subscribing to our weekly newsletter .

Where does this data come from, and what is it missing?

The Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics compiles annual data on fatalities and injuries for each mode of transportation.

Different modes of transportation have slightly different definitions of injuries. Passenger vehicle data in this analysis only includes injuries or fatalities that happen on highways and injuries that require medical attention away from the crash scene. Department of Transportation passenger vehicle data does not include non-highway incidents and injuries addressed at the scene of an incident and does not include non-passenger injuries or fatalities, such as pedestrians hit by cars or transit vehicles. Air travel data does not distinguish between passengers and non-passengers, like pilots and crew, and only records injuries that require hospitalization for at least 48 hours or involve serious fractures, tissue damage, or burns.

Air travel includes all scheduled flights by US domestic airlines, scheduled commuter flights, and on-demand air taxi services.

Subways are included in data for rail transit, which includes heavy rail (like subway systems), light rail, streetcars, and hybrid rail. It does not include commuter rail like Amtrak which is captured separately.

The term "trains" is used interchangeably with "railroads" throughout. Railroads include commuter rail and Amtrak.

Bus transit includes commuter bus, motor bus, rapid bus, and trolley bus. It does not include school buses or intercity buses like Greyhound.

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Air transportation safety in the U.S. - statistics & facts

Accidents in general aviation, security measures, covid-19 impact on the safety of air travel, key insights.

Detailed statistics

U.S. air carrier fatal accident rate 2000-2019

Primary contributing factors to aircraft accidents in North America 2015-2019

Lifetime odds of dying in a transport accident in the U.S. 2020

Editor’s Picks Current statistics on this topic

U.S. airlines - revenue passenger miles 2004-2021

U.S. air carriers - total performed aircraft departures 1991-2021

Further recommended statistics

• Basic Statistic Total air traffic passengers traveling to/from the United States 2006-2022
• Premium Statistic U.S. airlines - domestic and international passenger enplanements 2004-2021
• Premium Statistic Main U.S. airports by number of operations 2022
• Premium Statistic U.S. air carriers - total performed aircraft departures 1991-2021
• Premium Statistic U.S. airlines - revenue passenger miles 2004-2021
• Basic Statistic U.S. air carrier fatal accident rate 2000-2019
• Premium Statistic Primary contributing factors to aircraft accidents in North America 2015-2019
• Premium Statistic Lifetime odds of dying in a transport accident in the U.S. 2020

Total air traffic passengers traveling to/from the United States 2006-2022

Total number of air traffic passengers traveling to or from the United States from 2006 to 2022 (in million passengers)

U.S. airlines - domestic and international passenger enplanements 2004-2021

Domestic and international passenger enplanements of U.S. carriers from 2004 to 2021 (in millions)

Main U.S. airports by number of operations 2022

Leading U.S. airports in 2022, based on number of airport operations (in 1,000s)

Total number of aircraft departures performed by U.S. air carriers* from 1991 to 2021 (in millions)

Total revenue passenger miles of U.S. airlines from 2004 to 2021 (in billions)*

Fatal accident rate for U.S. air carriers between 2000 and 2019*

Leading primary contributing factors to aircraft accidents in North America between 2015 and 2019, by percentage contribution*

Lifetime odds of dying in a transport accident in the United States in 2020, by mode of transport*

• Premium Statistic U.S. air carrier accidents 2000-2019
• Premium Statistic U.S. air carrier fatal accidents & fatalities 2000-2020
• Premium Statistic U.S. air carrier accidents causing serious injuries to passengers 2000-2020
• Premium Statistic Fatal and non-fatal accidents in U.S. general aviation 2000-2020
• Basic Statistic Fatalities from general aviation in the U.S. 2000-2020
• Premium Statistic U.S. air carrier hull loss rate 2000-2020

U.S. air carrier accidents 2000-2019

Number of accidents involving U.S. air carriers between 2000 and 2019*

U.S. air carrier fatal accidents & fatalities 2000-2020

Number of fatal accidents and fatalities involving U.S. air carriers between 2000 and 2020*

U.S. air carrier accidents causing serious injuries to passengers 2000-2020

Number of serious injuries to passengers resulting from accidents involving U.S. air carriers between 2000 and 2020*

Fatal and non-fatal accidents in U.S. general aviation 2000-2020

Number of fatal and non-fatal accidents in general aviation in the United States between 2000 and 2020

Fatalities from general aviation in the U.S. 2000-2020

Number of fatalities from accidents in general aviation in the United States between 2000 and 2020

U.S. air carrier hull loss rate 2000-2020

Hull loss rate for accidents involving U.S. air carriers between 2000 and 2020*

• Basic Statistic Airport full body scanner - market value 2016&3032
• Premium Statistic U.S. airport infrastructure needs by type 2023-2027
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Airport full body scanner - market value 2016&3032

Value of the global market for airport full body scanners in 2016 and 2021 (in million U.S. dollars)

U.S. airport infrastructure needs by type 2023-2027

Value of airport infrastructure needs in the United States from 2023 to 2027, by type (in billion U.S. dollars)

Firearms discovered by screeners at U.S. airports 2005-2019

Number of firearms discovered by screeners at airports in the United States from 2005 to 2019

Top 10 airports in the U.S with the most gun confiscations 2019

Airports with the most gun confiscations in the U.S in 2019

American's views on airport security 2019

Americans' opinion on security at airports in 2019

COVID-19 impact

• Premium Statistic Effectiveness of TSA in tackling the COVID-19 spread in the U.S. 2020
• Premium Statistic Responsiveness of airline companies in tackling the COVID-19 spread in the U.S. 2020
• Premium Statistic Factors to determine airline choice to fly post-coronavirus in U.S. 2020
• Premium Statistic Boarding measures to gain confidence in flying post-coronavirus in U.S. 2020
• Premium Statistic Measures to gain confidence during a flight post-coronavirus in U.S. 2020

Effectiveness of TSA in tackling the COVID-19 spread in the U.S. 2020

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Responsiveness of airline companies in tackling the COVID-19 spread in the U.S. 2020

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Factors to determine airline choice to fly post-coronavirus in U.S. 2020

Factors respondents considered to be more important when it comes to choosing an airline in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020

Boarding measures to gain confidence in flying post-coronavirus in U.S. 2020

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Measures to gain confidence during a flight post-coronavirus in U.S. 2020

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Study: Commercial air travel is safer than ever

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It has never been safer to fly on commercial airlines, according to a new study by an MIT professor that tracks the continued decrease in passenger fatalities around the globe.

The study finds that between 2008 and 2017, airline passenger fatalities fell significantly compared to the previous decade, as measured per individual passenger boardings — essentially the aggregate number of passengers. Globally, that rate is now one death per 7.9 million passenger boardings, compared to one death per 2.7 million boardings during the period 1998-2007, and one death per 1.3 million boardings during 1988-1997.

Going back further, the commercial airline fatality risk was one death per 750,000 boardings during 1978-1987, and one death per 350,000 boardings during 1968-1977.

“The worldwide risk of being killed had been dropping by a factor of two every decade,” says Arnold Barnett, an MIT scholar who has published a new paper summarizing the study’s results. “Not only has that continued in the last decade, the [latest] improvement is closer to a factor of three. The pace of improvement has not slackened at all even as flying has gotten ever safer and further gains become harder to achieve. That is really quite impressive and is important for people to bear in mind.”

The paper, “Aviation Safety: A Whole New World?” was published online this month in Transportation Science . Barnett is the sole author.

The new research also reveals that there is discernible regional variation in airline safety around the world. The study finds that the nations housing the lowest-risk airlines are the U.S., the members of the European Union, China, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Israel. The aggregate fatality risk among those nations was one death per 33.1 million passenger boardings during 2008-2017. Barnett chose the nation as the unit of measurement in the study because important safety regulations for both airlines and airports are decided at the national level.

For airlines in a second set of countries, which Barnett terms the “advancing” set with an intermediate risk level, the rate is one death per 7.4 million boardings during 2008-2017. This group — comprising countries that are generally rapidly industrializing and have recently achieved high overall life expectancy and GDP per capita — includes many countries in Asia as well as some countries in South America and the Middle East.

For a third and higher-risk set of developing countries, including some in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, the death risk during 2008-2017 was one per 1.2 million passenger boardings — an improvement from one death per 400,000 passenger boardings during 1998-2007.

“The two most conspicuous changes compared to previous decades were sharp improvements in China and in Eastern Europe,” says Barnett, who is the George Eastman Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. In those places, he notes, had safety achievements in the last decade that were strong even within the lowest-risk group of countries.

Overall, Barnett suggests, the rate of fatalities has declined far faster than public fears about flying.

“Flying has gotten safer and safer,” Barnett says. “It’s a factor of 10 safer than it was 40 years ago, although I bet anxiety levels have not gone down that much. I think it’s good to have the facts.”

Barnett is a long-established expert in the field of aviation safety and risk, whose work has helped contextualize accident and safety statistics. Whatever the absolute numbers of air crashes and fatalities may be — and they fluctuate from year to year — Barnett has sought to measure those numbers against the growth of air travel.

To conduct the current study, Barnett used data from a number of sources, including the Flight Safety Foundation’s Aviation Safety Network Accident Database. He mostly used data from the World Bank, based on information from the International Civil Aviation Organization, to measure the number of passengers carried, which is now roughly 4 billion per year.

In the paper, Barnett discusses the pros and cons of some alternative metrics that could be used to evaluate commercial air safety, including deaths per flight and deaths per passenger miles traveled. He prefers to use deaths per boarding because, as he writes in the paper, “it literally reflects the fraction of passengers who perished during air journeys.”

The new paper also includes historical data showing that even in today’s higher-risk areas for commerical aviation, the fatality rate is better, on aggregate, than it was in the leading air-travel countries just a few decades in the past.

“The risk now in the higher-risk countries is basically the risk we used to have 40-50 years ago” in the safest air-travel countries, Barnett notes.

Barnett readily acknowledges that the paper is evaluating the overall numbers, and not providing a causal account of the air-safety trend; he says he welcomes further research attempting to explain the reasons for the continued gains in air safety.

In the paper, Barnett also notes that year-to-year air fatality numbers have notable variation. In 2017, for instance, just 12 people died in the process of air travel, compared to 473 in 2018.

“Even if the overall trendline is [steady], the numbers will bounce up and down,” Barnett says. For that reason, he thinks looking at trends a decade at a time is a better way of grasping the full trajectory of commercial airline safety.

On a personal level, Barnett says he understands the kinds of concerns people have about airline travel. He began studying the subject partly because of his own worries about flying, and quips that he was trying to “sublimate my fears in a way that might be publishable.”

Those kinds of instinctive fears may well be natural, but Barnett says he hopes that his work can at least build public knowledge about the facts and put them into perspective for people who are afraid of airplane accidents.

“The risk is so low that being afraid to fly is a little like being afraid to go into the supermarket because the ceiling might collapse,” Barnett says.

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Press mentions.

Prof. Arnold Barnett speaks with NPR reporter Juliana Kim about airline safety and the risks associated with flying. According to Barnett, "from 2018 to 2022, the chances of a passenger being killed on a flight anywhere in the world was 1 in 13.4 million. Between 1968 to 1977, the chance was 1 in 350,000,” writes Kim.

Fast Company

Fast Company reporter Arianne Cohen writes that a new study by Prof. Arnold Barnett finds flying today is much safer than it was in the past. Barnett examined flight safety from 2008 to 2017 and found that “globally, flying today is six times safer than 30 years ago, and 22 times safer than 50 years ago.”

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• Paper: “Aviation Safety: A Whole New World?”
• Arnold Barnett

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• MIT Sloan School of Management

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